[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042339
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
639 PM EST WED JAN 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa reaching the Atlantic
waters near 05N09W to 02N17W. The ITCZ begins from that point to
03N26W to 01N35W to 00N50W.  Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are observed on either side of these boundaries from the Equator
to 04N between 15W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Westerly winds aloft prevail across the entire Gulf early this
evening with the strongest winds, up to 80 knots, over the
northern half. A cold front enters the Gulf near Sarasota, Florida
and continues to 24.5N87W where it becomes a stationary front to
23N92W and into the southwest Bay of Campeche. A pre-frontal
trough is located from 60 to 90 nautical miles ahead of the front
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms located south of
the cold front to the Cuba coast and over the Straits of Florida.
Another cold front is located from near Gainesville, Florida to
26.5N90W to the upper Mexican coast at 25.5N. The two fronts are
expected to merge over the next day or so.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle/upper level trough is located over the eastern third of
the Caribbean and will be replaced by a ridge by Friday.  Water
vapor imagery shows strong subsidence over the entire area and is
especially pronounced over the southern half. No surface features
are located over the Caribbean. Strong easterly winds are forecast
over the south central Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours due to an
intensifying high pressure ridge over the Atlantic.

HISPANIOLA...

The middle/upper level trough mentioned above is located over
Hispaniola and is forecast to move east.  Cloudiness and isolated
showers are observed over the area and adjacent coastal waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle/upper level trough axis is located through 32N57W to
18N67W or just west of Puerto Rico and is forecast to move rapidly
to the east. A broad middle/upper level trough covers the east
Atlantic east of about 45W with a cyclonic circulation forecast to
develop near 30N25W in 48 hours. An upper level jet is located
from near 05N55W to 17N30W to the African coast at 23N with satellite
derived winds indicating speeds of up to 100 knots.  A cold front
extends through 32N73W to just north of Palm Beach, Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are located up to 4 to 5
degrees ahead of the front east of 75W. Another cold front is
located through 32N78W to Gainesville, Florida. The two fronts are
forecast to merge. A dissipating cold front enters the forecast
discussion area near 32N27W and continues along 26N40W to 27N53W.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAB
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