[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 19.2N 32.8W at 22/0300 UTC
or about 540 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands moving NNW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 17N-23N between 26W-33W. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Karl is centered near 22.9N 59.6W at 22/0300
UTC or about 630 nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 13 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 18N-28N between 54W-63W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N79W to 20N79W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-17N between 80W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 18N16W to
14N20W to 13N25W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical
Storm Lisa...scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 05N-13N between 11W-17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is noted over the SE CONUS with axis
extending from over the Carolinas and Florida panhandle near
31N84W SW to 27N95W over the NW Gulf waters. A 1013 mb low is
centered along the coast of South Carolina with stationary front
to northern Florida near 30N84W. Farther west...a surface trough
has continued to drift westward the past few days and as of
22/0300 UTC is analyzed from 29N94W to 22N95W. Isolated showers
and possible isolated tstms are occurring generally S of 26N W of
88W this evening. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under
fairly tranquil conditions as gentle to occasional moderate E-SE
winds prevail and are expected through Thursday. By Thursday
night...surface ridging is expected to build in across the SE
CONUS and NE Gulf with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevailing through the upcoming weekend. Early next week...SE
winds will increase slightly across the western Gulf ahead of a
cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts
by Monday late morning into early afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered over the eastern Caribbean near
17N69W and extends a trough axis westward to over the NW Caribbean
near 20N82W. Most middle to upper level moisture is noted W of
75W in association with diminishing late evening scattered showers
and tstms occurring across eastern Cuba and the adjacent coastal
waters and the presence of a tropical wave along 80W which is
generating scattered showers and tstms S of 18N between 80W-85W.
Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh trades persist with the
strongest of these trades generally remaining across south-central
portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers continue to diminish across the island this
evening as an upper level low remains centered to the SE of the
island near 17N69W. NE flow aloft persists within the NW
periphery of the upper level low. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are expected through Thursday as the next impulse
of middle to upper level energy moves southwestward over the
island from the central Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The remnant surface troughing of Julia is focused along the
coastline of the Carolinas this evening with a stationary front
extending from Charleston South Carolina SW to the Florida
panhandle near 30N84W. Isolated showers are possible N of 30N W of
78W. Otherwise...a weak surface trough is analyzed to the south
within this broad area of troughing and low pressure from 30N77W
to the Florida peninsula near 27N80W. Much of this region...
including the Bahamas...is under gentle E-SE flow with embedded
isolated showers and tstms occurring from 20N-25N between 74W-79W.
Otherwise...Tropical Depression Karl lies to the E of an upper
level low centered near 23N68W. Moisture and cloudiness
associated with the upper level low is generating isolated showers
and tstms well away from the center of Karl from 19N-27N between
66W-72W. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb
high centered near 34N45W and a 1024 mb high centered S of the
Azores near 33N26W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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