[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
647 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Lisa is centered near 19.9N 34.0W at 22/0900 UTC
or about 620 nm WNW of the Cape Verde Islands moving NW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 18N-24N between 27W-34W. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Karl is centered near 24.0N 60.7W at 22/0900
UTC or 540 about nm SSE of Bermuda moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 19N-28N between 57W-65W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 06N82W to 16N82W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the western
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 11N-14N between 85W-90W.
Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N-19N
between 79W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N24W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Storm
Lisa...scattered moderate convection is from 04N-12N between 12W-
18W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-11N between 22W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough is noted over the SE CONUS with axis
extending from over the Carolinas and Florida panhandle near
30N84W SW to 27N93W over the NW Gulf waters. A 1013 mb low is
centered along the coast of South Carolina with stationary front
to northern Florida near 30N83W. Farther west...a surface trough
continues to drift westward analyzed from 25N97W to 30N93W.
Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally S of 28N W of
87W this morning. Otherwise...a few isolated showers and tstms are
also noted across the SE waters S of 25N between 79W-85W...
including the Florida Straits. Gentle to occasional moderate E-SE
winds prevail and are expected through Thursday. By Thursday
night...surface ridging is expected to build in across the SE
CONUS and NE Gulf with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds
prevailing through the upcoming weekend. Early next week...SE
winds will increase slightly across the western Gulf ahead of a
cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts
by Monday late morning into early afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered over the eastern Caribbean near
17N69W and extends a trough axis westward to over the NW Caribbean
near 20N82W. Most middle to upper level moisture is noted W of
79W in association with a tropical wave along 83W which is
generating scattered showers and tstms S of 19N between 79W-
88W...including inland portions of Central America. Likely impacts
as this tropical wave passes across Central America today will be
localized flooding and possible mud slides where the heavier
precipitation occurs. Otherwise...moderate to occasional fresh
trades persist with the strongest of these trades generally
remaining across south-central portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
An upper level low remains centered to the SE of the island near
17N69W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected
through Thursday as the next impulse of middle to upper level
energy moves W-SW over the island from the SW North Atlc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Broad surface troughing is focused along the coastline of the
Carolinas this morning with a stationary front extending along the
coast from the Outer Banks of North Carolina SW to near
Jacksonville Florida. Isolated showers and possible isolated
tstms are noted on satellite imagery W of 75W within gentle S-SE
flow. Otherwise...Tropical Depression Karl lies to the E of an
upper level low centered near 24N69W. Moisture and cloudiness
associated with the upper level low is generating isolated showers
and tstms well away from the center of Karl from 19N-27N between
66W-72W. Finally...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb
high centered near 33N43W and a 1023 mb high centered S of the
Azores near 33N27W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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