[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212336
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
736 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Karl at 21/2100 UTC is near
21.9N 58.7W, moving west-northwestward at 10 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. A cluster of moderate
convection extends from 19N-27N between 55W-62W. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Lisa at 21/2100 UTC is near 18.5N
32.5W, moving northwestward 6 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is from 18N-23N between 24W-33W. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

The METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of a gale warning
for the southern part of the area called: CAPE VERDE. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 22/1200 UTC, consists of: cyclonic near gale or gale ceasing
in the southwestern part of CAPE VERDE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving over Jamaica with axis
extending from 19N78W to 10N78W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
The southern portion of this wave is interacting with the Monsoon
Trough and enhancing convection south of 14N between 76W-83W.
Scattered convection is also noted over Jamaica and adjacent
waters from 17N-19N between 76W-79W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 16N16W to 15N21W. No significant
convection is related to this boundary at this time.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough extends from eastern Mexico to the Gulf
waters near 28N93W. A surface trough extends from 24N96W to 27N94W
to 29N89W. Another surface trough extends over the Bay of Campeche
from 22N96W to 18N94W. The combination of these features is keeping
the western portion of the basin with isolated convection. An area
of scattered moderate convection has developed across the Yucatan
Peninsula and adjacent waters from 18N-25N between 87W- 91W. To
the east; a surface trough extends across the southeast Gulf
waters and Southern Florida enhancing scattered moderate
convection mainly east of 82W. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle winds across the basin except near the surface troughs,
where gentle to moderate winds are noted. Expect during the next
24 hours for the upper-level trough to move west into southern
Texas. Little change is expected elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean.
Please refer to the section above for details. An elongated
upper- level low extends across the northern portion of the basin
enhancing convection across the Greater Antilles and adjacent
waters north of 18N. The Monsoon Trough extends across the south-
central Caribbean enhancing convection south of 15N between 75W-
84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across
the area except over the waters north of Colombia and Panama, where
fresh to strong winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours
for the elongated upper-level low to persist over the northern
waters. The tropical wave will continue moving west enhancing
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

An elongated upper-level cyclonic circulation extends across the
northern Caribbean. With this, scattered moderate convection is
affecting the Greater Antilles including Hispaniola. Scattered
moderate convection is currently occurring over the southern
portion of the island. Expect a similar scenario during the  next
24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

T.D. Karl and T.S. Lisa are moving across the basin. Please refer
to the section above for details. A surface trough extends from
southern Florida near 27N80W to 31N77W with isolated showers.
Aside from the convection related to the tropical systems, fair
weather prevails across the remainder of the basin with a surface
ridge extending across the area. This ridge is anchored by a 1025
mb high centered near 34N46W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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