[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Karl at 21/1500 UTC is near
20.8N 57.8W. Karl is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees,
8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
within 200 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Lisa at 21/1500 UTC is near 18.0N
32.5W. Lisa is moving northwestward, or 320 degrees, 7 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within
400 nm of the center of Lisa in the E quadrant. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. The
METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast consists of a gale warning for
the southern part of the area that is called: CAPE VERDE. The
OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid
until 22/1200 UTC, consists of: cyclonic near gale or gale
ceasing in the southwestern part of CAPE VERDE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is moving across Jamaica, along
77W/78W from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate is off the NE coast
of Jamaica.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Mauritania
near 17N16W to 15N21W. A surface trough is 10N35W 06N43W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 12N to
16N between Africa and 20W. isolated moderate from 10N southward
between 10W and 50W, and elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 20W
and 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from 29N94W in the northwestern
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 29N90W
26N94W 23N95W. Convective precipitation: warming cloud top
temperatures from dissipating precipitation are in the area from
27N to 29N between 92W and 95W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, to the
east of the line from Tampa Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula.
This cyclonic wind flow is moving around the Caribbean Sea
18N80W cyclonic circulation center. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate in the area of cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the
southwestern corner of the area. A surface trough is in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 26N southward from 86W westward.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KEHC.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OFTEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: light rain in
apalachicola. MVFR at the Tampa International Airport, and in
Sarasota. light rain has been observed off and on during the
last few observations at the Key West Naval Air Station.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N80W, just
off the W coast of Jamaica. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
spans the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate elsewhere, mostly from 70W westward.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
20/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.68 in Bermuda,
0.37 in Guadalajara in Mexico, 0.20 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
0.17 in St.Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.05 in Montego Bay in
Jamaica, Acapulco, and 0.02 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and 0.01
in Trinidad.

The monsoon trough is along 10N74W 09N80W beyond 09N86W, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: numerous
strong from 09N in Panama to 14N between 77W and 82W.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N80W, just
off the W coast of Jamaica. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
is moving across Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate elsewhere, from 16N northward between 67W and
Jamaica.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: MVFR. Punta Cana:
VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings; Puerto Plata: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that anticyclonic wind
flow will move across Hispaniola for the first half of day one,
changing to NE wind flow for the rest of day one. Expect NE wind
flow for most of day two. A cyclonic circulation center is
expected to move onshore at the end of day two, spreading
cyclonic wind flow across the island. The GFS MODEL forecast for
500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will move
across the area during the first half of day one. The second
half of day two will consist of a trough covering the northern
half of Hispaniola, and a ridge covering the southern half of
Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that
anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge will cover the area at the
start of the 48-hour forecast period, giving way to NE wind flow
as the ridge moves westward for most of the rest of day one. An
inverted trough will move across Hispaniola during most of day
two. Expect SE and S wind flow at the end of day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N79W in
South Carolina. A surface trough is along 31N78W 28N80W, across
Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to 24N82W in the Straits of Florida.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from Cuba and 20N to 28N between 70W and 80W. This precipitation
is occurring in an area of cyclonic wind flow that is moving
around the Caribbean Sea 18N80W cyclonic circulation center.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 35N55W. A
second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N69W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 29N northward between 60W and 67W. rainshowers are possible
from 29N northward between 50W and 60W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N64W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 18N to 29N between 56W
and 66W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to
30N between 60W and 70W. Tropical Storm Karl is about 400 nm to
the ESE of this feature.

An upper level trough extends from a 31N15W cyclonic
circulation, to 30N28W, to a 30N40W cyclonic circulation center.
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 23N northward between Africa and 50W, and from 26N
northward between 50W and 70W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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