[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200546
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
146 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 19.7N 50.5W at 20/0300 UTC
or about 660 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 18N-23N between 47W-51W. See
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/
WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 14.2N 29.0W at
20/0300 UTC or about 310 nm WSW of the Cape Verde Islands moving
WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-18N between 25W-31W.
See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 11N69W to 20N68W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the central
Caribbean Sea and is embedded within an area of maximum low-level
moisture as noted in Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is
expected to remain beneath an upper level low noted on water
vapor imagery centered near 15N69W. Isolated moderate convection
is from 15N-20N between 64W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 16N17W to
11N23W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Depression
Thirteen...scattered moderate convection is from 10N-14N between
15W-19W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-08N between
29W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough axis extends from over the Carolinas SW to a
base over the NW Gulf with water vapor imagery indicating very dry
air and strong subsidence over much of the northwestern portion of
the basin this evening. The troughing aloft supports a surface
trough analyzed from the Florida panhandle near 30N86W to 25N91W
providing focus for isolated showers and tstms occurring within
120 nm E and 90 nm W of the boundary. Addition isolated showers
and tstms are occurring from 21N-24N between 91W-97W. This
convection is likely enhanced due to upper level diffluence
associated with an upper level ridge anchored in the vicinity of
25N88W. While fairly tranquil weather prevails across the basin
this evening...light to gentle E-NE winds are expected through
Tuesday. By Wednesday...surface ridging is forecast to build in
across the SE CONUS and northern Gulf with gentle to occasional
moderate E-SE winds expected through the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad and elongated upper level low is centered over the eastern
Caribbean near 15N69W and stretches NW to another upper level low
centered over eastern Cuba. Given the broadness of the feature...
much of the western portion of the basin including Central America
is under the influence of NW flow aloft. The upper level low is
advecting moisture and cloudiness across much of the eastern and
north-central Caribbean and along with a tropical wave along 68W
is providing focus for isolated showers and possible tstms N of
12N between 60W-69W...and N of 16N between 69W-75W. Otherwise...
other active convection is occurring in the adjacent offshore
waters of Cuba as scattered showers and tstms are occurring within
90 nm of the coast. Finally...moderate to occasional fresh trades
persist with the strongest of these trades generally remaining
across south-central portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are noted across portions of the island and
adjacent coastal waters as an upper level low is centered across
the Caribbean Sea near 15N69W. A tropical wave noted beneath the
upper level low along 68W will continue to provide increased
cloudiness and higher probability of precipitation through
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The remnant low of Julia in the SW North Atlc is analyzed as a
1011 mb low centered off the North Carolina coast near 34N76W. A
cold front extends from the low SW to the South Carolina coast
near 32N81W with scattered showers and tstms occurring N of 28N W
of 78W. To the SW...a surface trough extends from the NW Bahamas
near 27N78W to 30N73W providing focus for scattered showers and
isolated tstms occurring within 90 nm either side of the
boundary. Farther east...a weakness in the central Atlc ridging is
another surface trough analyzed from 23N67W to 29N63W. Isolated
showers and tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the
boundary and N of 29N between 59W-66W. Otherwise...aside from
Tropical Storm Karl and Tropical Depression Thirteen...the
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered SW of the
Azores near 35N40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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