[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
746 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karl at 19/2100 UTC is near 19.3N
49.2W, at about 730 nm east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Karl is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
35 knots with gusts to 45 kt. A cluster of moderate convection
prevails from 19N-23N between 44W-50W. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

As of 19/2100 UTC, the tropical wave and low pressure analyzed
along 28W are now Tropical Depression Thirteen, centered near
13.6N 28.6W. This depression is moving west at 10 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection prevails from 12N-18N between 22W-32W. Please
read the latest Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends its axis from 20N67W to
10N68W, moving westward 15 knots. The wave is embedded in an area
of moderate moisture as depicted in TPW imagery. This feature is
moving across the western part of Puerto Rico inducing isolated
moderate convection across the island and adjacent waters north of
14N between 64W- 68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 17N17W to the now T.D. Thirteen near 14N28W. The only
convection in the area is related to the T.D., please refer to the
section above for details.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection
across the central Gulf waters mainly north of 25N and between
86W-92W. Latest scatterometer data depicts a surface trough in
this area also extending from 25N91W to the Florida Panhandle near
31N84W. To the south; an upper-level low centered over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is enhancing convection across the southern portion of
Mexico and Yucatan Peninsula. This activity is moving west
reaching the Bay of Campeche mainly south of 18N. Scatterometer
data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. Expect for a
similar weather pattern to prevail through the next 24 hours as
an upper-level low develops over the northwest Gulf waters
enhancing convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. An upper-level low is
centered south of the Mona Passage near 16N69W. A surface trough
extends across Haiti from 21N71W to 15N72W supporting scattered
moderate convection across the island and adjacent waters mainly
north of 16N between 69W-73W. The Monsoon Trough extends across
the southern portion of the basin enhancing convection south of
11N between 78W-82W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
trades across the Caribbean waters. Expect for the tropical wave
to merge with the surface trough as it moves west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is located south of the
island near 16N69W. A surface trough extends from 21N71W to 15N72W
enhancing convection across the area. Similar activity is
expected through the next 24 hours as a tropical wave approaches
from the east.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Karl and T.D. Thirteen are moving across the
basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface
trough extends across the western Atlantic from 31N77W to 28N77W
with isolated convection. Another surface trough is to the east of
the first one, extending from 29N65W to 32N62W. Scattered showers
are observed along this boundary. The remainder of the area is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high
centered near 44N26W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
tropical system to move northwest. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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