[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karl at 19/1500 UTC is near 18.6N
48.3W. Karl is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Please
read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W/27W from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. A 1007 mb low pressure
center is near 13N along the tropical wave. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 200
nm of the center in the N quadrant. remnant showers and
thunderstorms are possible, in an area of warming cloud top
temperatures, within 200 nm of the center in the W quadrant.
The precipitation pattern is beginning to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days.
It is likely that a tropical depression may form later today or
on Tuesday, before large-scale conditions become less favorable.
Occasional heavy rains and gusty winds that are associated with
this system should diminish later today in the Cabo Verde
Islands. The chance of formation is high. See latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. This tropical wave is
moving across the eastern part of Puerto Rico. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 19N southward between 63W
and 68W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 16N24W, through the 1007 mb low pressure center
that is near 13N27W, to 10N31W and 09N37W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 04N to 10N between 10W and
40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is moving through the northern sections of
the Gulf of Mexico. The trough passes through Georgia to the
Florida Panhandle, to 26N92W. A surface trough is along 31N85W
in the Florida Panhandle to 28N88W and 25N91W. Upper level NE
wind flow covers much of the rest of the area. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of 30N86W 27N88W 25N91W
23N94W. isolated moderate elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is in the NW corner of the area
near 27N95W.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHHV and KMIS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR or near MVFR conditions in the HOUSTON metropolitan
area, near Pearland and Tomball. LOUISIANA: MVFR in parts of the
Lake Charles metropolitan area, in Galliano. in MISSISSIPPI and
in ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR in parts of the
Pensacola metropolitan area, in Milton, in the NW part of the
Panama City metropolitan area, and in Tallahassee. Apalachicola:
rainshowers and thunder. Punta Gorda and in parts of the Ft.
Myers metropolitan area: rain and thunder.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from Haiti to NW Cuba. Broad upper
level NW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward,
away from the 16N69W cyclonic circulation center. Cyclonic wind
flow covers the area, related to the 16N69W cyclonic center.
Precipitation has been dissipating to the north of the line
that runs from 16N65W to northwestern Cuba.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.44 in St.Thomas
in the Virgin Islands, and 0.19 in Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N from 73W beyond 85W, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective precipitation: scattered
strong from 08N to 11N between 76W and 83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N69W, to
the south of Hispaniola. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans
the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola.

A surface trough is along 69W/70W, from 14N to 22N,
cutting across the eastern part of the Dominican Republic.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong from 15N to 22N between 68W and 73W. some
precipitation is inland in the Dominican Republic.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR/no
ceilings. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no
ceilings: few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR/no
ceilings: scattered cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: rain
and thunder. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus
clouds. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds.
Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds,.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current
16N69W cyclonic circulation center will send cyclonic wind flow
across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 MB shows that an inverted trough will span the area for
much of the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. SE
wind flow will be moving across the area for the rest of the
time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows that SE wind flow
will move across the area for much of the first part of day one.
NE wind flow cover the area during day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N57W.
Cyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm of the center in the north
quadrant and in the south quadrant, within 180 nm of the center
in the eastern quadrant, and within 240 nm of the center in the
western quadrant. Comparatively drier air in subsidence
surrounds the 22N57W cyclonic center. Tropical Storm Karl is
nearly 600 nm to the ESE of this feature.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N59W, to
the north of the area. Cyclonic wind flow that is moving around
this center reaches 32N. A surface trough is along 30N64W 29N66W
27N67W 25N72W 23N74W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N to 32N
between 59W and 65W.

A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center,
that is near 33N78W, to 31N77W and 28N79W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 25N
northward from 70W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward between Africa and 60W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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