[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201044
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Karl is centered near 20.2N 52.8W at 20/0900 UTC
or about 540 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving WNW at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 17N-24N between 48W-54W. See latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is centered near 14.4N 29.6W at
20/0900 UTC or about 340 nm WSW of the Cape Verde Islands moving
WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 13N-
19N between 25W-30W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N72W to 18N71W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave remains within broad 700 mb troughing over the central
Caribbean Sea and is embedded within an area of maximum low-level
moisture as noted in Total Precipitable Water imagery. The wave is
expected to remain beneath the influence of an upper level low
noted on water vapor imagery centered near 15N69W. No significant
deep convection is noted with the wave at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to
14N20W. Aside from convection associated with Tropical Depression
Thirteen...scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 13N-16N between 15W-19W. Isolated moderate convection is
from 04N-08N between 32W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
An upper level trough axis extends from over the Carolinas SW to a
base over the NW Gulf with water vapor imagery indicating very dry
air and strong subsidence over much of the northwestern portion of
the basin this morning. The troughing aloft supports a surface
trough analyzed from the Florida panhandle near 31N84W to 25N90W
providing focus for isolated showers and tstms occurring N of 23N
between 85W-89W and S of 24N W of 90W. This convection is likely
enhanced due to upper level diffluence associated with an upper
level ridge anchored in the vicinity of 24N88W. While fairly
tranquil weather prevails across the basin this morning...light
to gentle E-NE winds are expected through Tuesday night. By
Wednesday...surface ridging is forecast to build in across the SE
CONUS and northern Gulf with gentle to occasional moderate E-SE
winds expected through the remainder of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A broad and elongated upper level low is centered over the eastern
Caribbean near 15N69W and stretches NW to another upper level low
centered over eastern Cuba. Given the broadness of the feature...
much of the western portion of the basin including Central America
is under the influence of NW flow aloft on the western periphery
of the troughing. The upper level low is advecting moisture and
cloudiness across much of the eastern and north-central Caribbean
and along with a tropical wave along 72W is providing focus for
isolated showers and possible tstms E of 66W and N of 17N between
70W-82W. Finally...moderate to occasional fresh trades persist
with the strongest of these trades generally remaining across
south-central portions of the basin.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are noted across portions of the island and
adjacent coastal waters as an upper level low is centered across
the Caribbean Sea near 15N69W. A tropical wave noted beneath the
upper level low along 72W will continue to provide increased
cloudiness and higher probability of precipitation through
Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
The remnant low of Julia in the SW North Atlc is analyzed as a
1011 mb low centered off the North Carolina coast near 34N76W. A
cold front extends from the low SW to the South Carolina coast
near 33N80W with scattered showers and tstms occurring N of 28N
between 76W-80W. Farther east...a weakness in the central Atlc
ridging along with maximum middle to upper level diffluence is
generating an area of scattered showers and tstms from 29N-32N
between 61W-66W. Otherwise...aside from Tropical Storm Karl and
Tropical Depression Thirteen...the remainder of the central and
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1026 mb high centered near 36N47W and a 1027 mb high centered
across the Azores near 39N30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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