[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 16/1500 UTC is near 31.1N
75.6W. Julia is moving east-southeastward at 6 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Scattered moderate convection extends from 29N-33N between 70W-
75W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21KNHC
for more details.

The now post-tropical storm Ian is located near 48.8N 36.2W as of
16/1500 UTC. Ian is moving northeastward at about 46 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots.
Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 49N between 34W-
39W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Karl is located near 18.4N 34.3W as of 16/1500 UTC.
Karl is moving westward at 11 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 18N-24N between 27W-34W. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas of Agadir and Cape
Verde. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that
is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the western Africa coast with axis
from 19N15W to a 1010 mb low near 12N16W to 06N16W, moving
westward at around 15 knots. is along 14W/15W from 20N southward,
inland, in Africa. Scattered moderate convection is observed from
07N-15N between 12W-21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N51W to
10N52W, moving westward at 15 knots. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time as Saharan dust prevails in its
environment.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the surface low along the coast
of Africa near 12N16W to 13N27W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical wave and low, isolated showers are observed within
200 nm south of the boundary between 18W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb surface low was analyzed near 29N95W. A surface trough
extends from 28N97W to the low to 30N93W. Scattered moderate
convection has developed near the low center affecting the
northern Gulf waters north of 26N between 91W-96W. To the south; a
surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N94W to
18N95W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough
between 93W-96W. A surface trough extends across the southeastern
Gulf and south Florida area from 25N85W to 26N81W enhancing
isolated convection. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds across the western Gulf west of 90W while easterly
winds prevail across the eastern portion of the basin. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the surface low in the northwest Gulf
to dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level cyclonic circulation is centered south of Cuba near
19N81W. A diffluent flow aloft just east of this low is
supporting isolated moderate convection across the central
caribbean waters between 72W-82W. This activity is reaching
portions of Nicaragua and Honduras supporting scattered moderate
convection. Isolated showers are prevailing across the remainder
of the basin generated by the combination of low-level moisture
transported by the moderate to fresh trades. Scattered moderate
convection is observed over the Lesser Antilles enhanced by a
surface trough that extends over the central Atlantic. Little
change is expected through the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level anticyclone is centered over Dominican Republic
near 19N71W. With this, fair weather prevails across the island at
this time. Isolated showers could develop in the afternoon and
evening hours enhanced by daytime heating and orographic lifting.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Julia, Ian and Karl are moving across the basin while a tropical
wave extend over the central Atlantic. Please refer to the
sections above for details. The western Atlantic in influenced by
Julia at this time, with scattered moderate convection mainly
north of 29N. To the east; a surface trough extends from 23N66W
to 30N56W. Isolated convection prevails along this boundary.
Another surface trough was analyzed over the central Atlantic,
extending from 15N61W to 26N54W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed along the southern portion of the trough from 15N-21N
affecting the Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 43N18W. Gale-force winds are forecast over the
northeastern Atlantic from the Cabo Verde Islands to the north.
Please refer to the section above for details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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