[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161126
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 16/0900 UTC is near 31.1N
76.4W. Julia is moving southeastward, or 135 degrees, 4 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong within 240 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 16/0900 UTC is near 45.2N
40.8W. Ian is moving northeastward, or 40 degrees, 42 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 240 nm of the center in the N semicircle. A surface
trough is along 27N53W 20N56W 15N60W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong within 30 nm to 60 nm on
either side of the trough. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Karl at 16/0900 UTC is near 18.3N
33.4W. Karl is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 240 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. Please read the latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas
that are called: AGADIR and CAPE VERDE. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 17/1200 UTC,
consists of: the persistence of a N or NE near gale between the
islands in CANARIAS, ceasing later.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 14W/15W from 20N southward, inland, in
Africa. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 08N to 12N between Africa and 20W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knot. An upper level Atlantic Ocean trough
is along 27N50W 17N51W, to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W.
Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate within 240 nm on
either side of 27N49W 16N50W 06N56W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau, near 12N16W, continuing to 07N21W 08N20W and 07N26W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 01N to 07N between 10W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 23N98W to 26N94W. Cyclonic wind
flow covers the W parts of the area. A meandering surface trough
now is in the coastal plains of the U.S.A., from Texas the
Florida Big Bend. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 27N to 29N between 91W and 95W.

A diurnal thermal trough is in the southwestern corner of the
area extends from the northwestern corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 18N to 20N between 94W and
96W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow also is apparent in the SE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward from 89W westward,
covering the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. This cyclonic wind
flow is related to the Caribbean Sea 20N80W cyclonic circulation
center.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVBS, KVAF, KGUL, and KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain and MVFR at the HOUSTON-HOBBY airport.
LOUISIANA: IFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area.
MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in the Hattiesburg metropolitan area, and in
Gulfport. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Tampa
Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N80W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N
northward from Jamaica westward. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible in the area of cyclonic wind flow.
numerous strong is in a small area in the Gulf of Honduras near
Belize, Guatemala, and Honduras. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 16N southward between 70W and 80W.

Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate from 16N southward
between 60w and 70W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...2.15 in
Guadeloupe, 0.69 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.14 in
Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 08N73W in Colombia, to 08N81W in
Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica. Earlier convective
precipitation has weakened and dissipated, and moved northward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Hispaniola.
Earlier convective precipitation in Haiti has ended.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago/Puerto
Plata: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds,.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current
anticyclonic wind flow will continue for day one, ending with N
wind flow across the area. Expect more N wind flow during day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow
will prevail during the next 48 hours, with an anticyclonic
circulation center that moves across Cuba by the end of the 48-
hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 MB shows
that NE wind flow will prevail across the area, first with
one trough, and then with a separate and second inverted trough.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level Central Atlantic Ocean trough passes through
32N54W to 23N58W, and then dissipating as it extends toward the
eastern Caribbean Sea islands. The upper level feature supports
a surface trough that is along 30N56W 27N58W 21N63W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the line that
passes through 32N52W to 20N60W.

A surface ridge is along 24N48W 28N43W, beyond 32N33W. Broad
surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from
24N northward between Africa and 50W. A 1029 mb high pressure
center is near 43N21W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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