[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 16/0300 UTC is near 31.5N
77.1W, or about 51 nm to the ESE of Charleston in South
Carolina. Julia is moving east-southeastward, or 120 degrees, 4
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45
knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 160 nm to 270 nm of the center in the NE
semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 16/0300 UTC is near 42.9N
44.9W. Ian is moving northeastward, or 40 degrees, 46 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 200 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A surface trough
is 530 nm to the south of Ian, along 25N53W 15N58W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 15N to 26N between 53W and
60W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Karl at 16/0300 UTC is near 17.9N
32.5W. Karl is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 12 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots.
Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 180 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle. rainshowers are possible elsewhere
within 240 nm to 400 nm of the center in the NE semicircle.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the areas
that are called: AGADIR and CAPE VERDE. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 17/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence of a NE near gale in CANARIAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 13W/14W from 16N southward, inland, in
Africa. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 10.5N to
14N between 13W and 17W. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 08N to 10N between 14W and 16W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knot. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 13N to 20N between 48W and 53W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau, near 12N16W, continuing to 07N21W and 08N28W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
01N to 07N between 11W and 27W. The monsoon trough is broken up
by the presence of T.S. KARL. The ITCZ is along 11N44W 11N50W,
to 08N60W, at the coast of Venezuela and Guyana. Convective
precipitation: Isolated moderate from 13N southward between 44W
and 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 23N98W to 26N94W. Cyclonic wind
flow covers the SW corner of the area. A meandering surface
trough now is to the north of 25N, between Florida and the
coastal waters of Mexico and SE Texas. Convective precipitation:
remnant rainshowers are possible from 24N northward. numerous
strong in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough extends
from the northwestern corner of the Yucatan Peninsula and the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate elsewhere from 22N southward from the Yucatan Peninsula
westward.

Upper level cyclonic windflow also is apparent in the SE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward from 89W westward,
covering the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KHQI.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVAF, KGUL, KGBK, KEHC, KGHB, KSPR, and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Brownsville. LIFR in Port Lavaca. LOUISIANA: MVFR
in Galliano. MISSISSIPPI: light rain at the Chain Airport in
Hattiesburg. ALABAMA: VFR/no ceilings. FLORIDA: MVFR at the
Tampa Executive Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, to
22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation
center. Upper level SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 78W westward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N between Hispaniola and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the
area from 15N southward between 60W and 70W, with an inverted
trough. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 15N southward between 60W and 71W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...2.15 in
Guadeloupe, 0.69 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.14 in
Curacao.

The monsoon trough is along 08N74W in Colombia, to 09N80W in
Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 10N to 12N between 76W and the
coast of Central America. numerous strong from 05N to 10N
between 77W and 82W, in Colombia, and Panama mostly, and in the
eastern Pacific ocean just to the south of Panama.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level S to SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. An
upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, to
22N74W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center The trough
continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation center. Upper level
SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 13N
southward from 78W westward. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 14N between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Peninsula.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE in HAITI: rainshowers
and thunder as of 15/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/no ceiling; few cumulonimbus clouds, as
of 16/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceilings. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current Jamaica
cyclonic circulation center will move westward during day one.
Expect SW wind flow for most of day one. More SW wind flow will
continue until the end of day one, as an anticyclonic
circulation center will move westward and reach the southern
coastal waters of the Dominican Republic at the end of day one.
the same anticyclonic circulation center will move westward
during day two. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that easterly wind flow will prevail during the next 48
hours. The wind flow will be a little bit SE at the start of the
48-hour forecast period, and eventually it will become NE wind
flow, and continue for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level Central Atlantic Ocean ends just outside the NE
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N between 60W and 80W.

An upper level trough is along 26N40W 17N43W 11N49W 06N52W.
The 49W tropical wave is moving under the area of this trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 23N northward between Africa and 46W. A 1029 mb high
pressure center is near 37N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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