[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Julia strengthened to a Tropical Storm at 2100 UTC. Its center is located
near 32.1N 77.1W or about 152 nm ESE of Charleston South Carolina
moving E at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt.
Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 30N to 34N
between 70W and 77W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 39.6N 47.7W at 15/2100 UTC or
about 938 nm ENE of Bermuda moving NE at 30 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt
with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 39N between
40W and 50W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 17.8N 31.4W at
15/2100 UTC or about 439 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving
W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. A
cluster of heavy showers and tstms is from 17N to 20N between 27W
and 31W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10N to
19N with axis near 48W moving W at 10 kt within the last 24 hours.
Even though the wave is in a region of favorable deep layer wind
shear, water vapor imagery show strong dry air subsidence that
along with Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment hinder
convection at the time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N20W and then from 13N35W to 10N50W. The Intertropical
Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N50W to 08N58W. Aside from
convection associated with Tropical Depression Twelve...scattered
heavy showers and isolated tstms are from 08N to 11N E of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure dominates at the surface across most of the basin.
At 2100 UTC, a 1011 mb low is in the NW Gulf near 27N95W from
which a surface trough extends NE to 29N91W then E along 28N85W to
the northern Florida Peninsula near 29N81W. This area of low
pressure is beneath a broad upper level anticyclone, which
divergent flow support scattered showers from 24N to 29N between
87W and 95W and isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the
remainder trough axis. There is a low chance of this system to
develop within the next two days. Development of this system, if
any, should be slow to occur before it moves inland over Texas by
Saturday. Otherwise, isolated showers are across the Bay of
Campeche associated with a surface trough extending from 22N94W to
18N95W. Thereafter...gentle to moderate E-SE winds are
anticipated through the upcoming weekend as a surface ridge re-establishes
itself across the SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level low continues to cover the NW Caribbean waters
supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms along the southern
coastline of Cuba and adjacent waters. Isolated showers extends to
the Windward Passage, Haiti and the Cayman trench. In the SW
basin, a 1011 mb low near 10N77W and diffluent flow aloft support
heavy showers and isolated tstms S of 14N between 73W and 83W. The
remainder basin is under strong dry air subsidence, which support
stable and fair weather conditions. Otherwise...gentle to
moderate trades prevail and are expected to persist through the
weekend with slightly stronger trades reaching occasional fresh
levels across the south-central waters S of 13N between 69W-78W.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level low centered S of Cuba and an anticyclone centered
S of Santo Domingo provide divergent flow across the Windward
Passage and Haiti to support cloudiness and possible isolated
showers across the Island. The upper low will move west tonight
and fair weather conditions will resume Friday before sunrise
when the anticyclone moves over the Island providing stable
conditions. Fair weather will prevail through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Storm Julia is now N of the forecast waters and the main
feature now is Tropical Depression Twelve over central Atlantic
waters. See special features above. In the north-central Atlantic...a
middle to upper level trough axis supports a weak 1014 mb low
centered near 28N60W with an equally weak cold front extending
from the low to 26N66W and a stationary front extending NE from
the low to 31N56W. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed to
the SE of the low center from 28N57W to 23N62W. There is no
convection associated with these features. A surface trough
extends from 24N52W to 18N57W to Martinique Island in the
Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstms are noted within 120 nm
either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge
generally N of 22N anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near the
Azores.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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