[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 16/2100 UTC is near 30.8N
75.7W. Julia is moving south at 3 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Scattered moderate
convection extends east of the center from 29N-32N between 69W-
74W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and the Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21KNHC for
more details.

Tropical Storm Karl is located near 18.8N 35.6W as of 16/2100
UTC. Karl is moving westward at 11 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is east of the center from 19N-22N between 32W-35W.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/
Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for
more details.

Near gale-force winds are forecast for the areas of Agadir and
Cape Verde. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast,
that is listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM /PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends across the western Africa coast with
axis from 19N16W to a 1009 mb low near 12N16W to 06N17W, moving
westward at 10-15 knots. Patches of scattered moderate
convection are observed from 09N-19N between 09W-19W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 21N52W to 09N53W,
moving westward at 15 knots. No significant convection is
related to this wave at this time as Saharan dust prevails in
its environment.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

A short monsoon trough extends from the 1009 mb low off the
coast of Africa near 12N16W to 08N23W to 06N34W. Isolated
moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 20W-30W. An ITCZ
extends from 09N44W to the coast of South America near 09N61W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb surface is near 29N95W. A surface trough extends south
from the low to 25N96W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the NW Gulf of Mexico north of 25N between
89W-96W. Further south, a surface trough extends across the Bay
of Campeche from 22N96W to 17N97W. Scattered showers are within
60 nm of the trough axis. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is inland over the Florida Peninsula
and over the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels an upper
level high is centered over the Central Gulf near 25N90W. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the surface low in the northwest
Gulf to move inland over Eastern Texas and dissipate.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southern portion of a surface trough reaches the Leeward
Islands near 15N62W. Scattered showers are from 14N-18N between
58W-62W. The remainder of the Caribbean Sea has 10-15 knot
tradewinds in a relatively lax area of surface pressure
gradient. An upper-level cyclonic circulation is centered south
of Cuba near 20N82W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over the Western Caribbean and Central America
from 11N-17N between 80W-93W. Expect the surface trough to move
over the Eastern Caribbean over the next 24 hours with showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level high is centered north of Hispaniola near 23N69W.
Isolated showers are over the central portions of the island due
to daytime heating and orographic lifting. Expect similar
conditions Saturday evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Julia,and Karl are moving across the basin. See above. Two
tropical waves are also over the tropical Atlantic. The low
embedded on the Western African tropical wave deserves
monitoring for further development over the next five days.
Further east, a surface trough extends from 25N57W to 15N62W.
Isolated moderate convection prevails within 90 nm east of the
axis. Another surface trough is analyzed over the Western
Atlantic from 30N57W to 22N62W that is mostly void of
precipitation. The remainder of the basin is under the influence
of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near
43N18W. Near gale-force winds remain over the northeastern
Atlantic NE of the Cabo Verde Islands, and NE of the Canary
Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net