[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Julia at 15/0600 UTC is near 32.1N
79.8W, or about 10 nm to the W of Brunswick, Georgia. Julia is
moving east-northeastward, or 60 degrees, 4 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered strong within 80 nm to 160 nm of the
center in the E semicircle. isolated moderate elsewhere within
320 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Please read the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 15/0300 UTC is near 33.9N
53.4W. Ian is moving north-northeastward, or 15 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55
knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
strong within 260 nm of the center in the N semicircle. A
surface trough is 460 nm to the south of Ian, along 27N53W
20N55W 14N60W. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from
18N to 21N between 53W and 56W. scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 16N to 18N between 55W and 58W. Please read the
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression TWELVE at 15/0300 UTC is near
17.6N 27.5W. TWELVE is moving westward, or 280 degrees, 12
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 75 nm to
90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. isolated moderate
elsewhere within 400 nm of the center. Please read the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under the
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W/45W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knot. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 20N to 23N between 40W and 44W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of
Mauritania near 17N16W, to 16N23W, 15N30W 10N40W 09N45W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N54W to 08N56W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
03N to 08N between 10W and 20W. isolated moderate elsewhere S of
20N between Africa and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N94W.
Cyclonic wind flow is apparent from 26N southward from 89W
westward, covering the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 20N southward
between NW Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
21N southward between the eastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula
and 94W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: KMIS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, to
22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation
center. Upper level SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 76W westward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N between Hispaniola and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the
area from 15N southward between 60W and 70W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.55 in Curacao,
0.37 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.13 in Havana in Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, beyond southern
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 13N southward from 73W westward.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level S to SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. An
upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas,
to22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation
center. Upper level SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 76W westward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N between Hispaniola
and the Yucatan Peninsula.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE in HAITI: rainshowers
and thunder. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...in the Dominican
Republic: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling; few cumulonimbus clouds.
Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago/
Puerto Plata: VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current Jamaica
cyclonic circulation center will move westward during day one.
Expect SW wind flow for most of day one. More SW wind flow will
continue until the end of day one, as an anticyclonic
circulation center will move westward and reach the southern
coastal waters of the Dominican Republic at the end of day one.
the same anticyclonic circulation center will move westward
during day two. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that easterly wind flow will prevail during the next 48
hours. The wind flow will be a little bit SE at the start of the
48-hour forecast period, and eventually it will become NE wind
flow, and continue for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N54W to 26N59W and
24N69W, across the southeastern Bahamas, to 22N74W. The trough
continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation center.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible between the
T.S. IAN surface trough and the Bahamas. in the Caribbean Sea:
isolated moderate from 16N between Hispaniola and the Yucatan
Peninsula.

An upper level trough is along 26N40W 17N43W 11N49W 06N52W.
The 44W/45W tropical wave is moving under the area of this
trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 21N northward between Africa and 50W. One 1027 mb high
pressure center is near 37N24W. A second 1027 mb high pressure
center is near 35N39W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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