[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Twelve is centered near 17.4N 26.5W at
14/2100 UTC or about 165 nm west-northwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from 11N-22N between 22W-30W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 18N43W to 10N44W, moving west at 15 kt. This wave
is a hybrid feature of an African easterly wave that emerged off
the coast of Africa a few days ago and mid-latitude energy that
moved southwest away from a middle to upper-level trough currently
located across west Europe. Isolated convection remains confined
to the southern portion of the wave axis in close proximity to the
Monsoon Trough axis mainly south of 12N between 40W-46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 15N30W to 10N40W to 09N47W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 09N47W to 06N55W.
Aside from convection associated with Tropical Depression Twelve
and the tropical wave along 44W...isolated convection is within
200 nm either side of the axis between 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Unstable weather prevails across the basin at this time. An
upper-level low is centered near 23N89W. At the surface; a 1013
mb surface low located near 27N92W, with a surface trough
extending from west to east from 27N95W to 27N87W to 29N85W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the
low/trough supported by the upper-level feature from 23N-28N
between 83W-92W. To the southwest; a surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche from 22N92W to 18N93W with isolated
convection. Scattered moderate convection is developing across the
Yucatan Peninsula and moving west reaching the southwest Gulf
waters south of 22N east of 92W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle
to moderate easterly winds across the area north of 26N while
moderate southerly winds prevail south of 26N. Expect through the
next 24 hours for the surface low to move northwest approaching
southern Texas with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low is centered just south of the Windward Passage
near 17N76W. A diffluent flow aloft prevails west of this low supporting
isolated moderate convection across Cuba, Jamaica, and the northwest
Caribbean waters north of 16N and west of 75W. To the south; the
Monsoon Trough extends along 09N supporting isolated showers
between 76W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across the basin. Little change is expected through the
next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper level low is centered southwest of the island near
17N76W. This low provides relatively dry and stable conditions
aloft. A few showers developed across northern Haiti this
afternoon/evening due to daytime heating combined with low-level
moisture. This activity will dissipate quickly within the next
couple of hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Tropical Depression Twelve is moving across the eastern Atlantic
while a tropical wave extends along 44W. Please refer to the
sections above for details. The proximity of Tropical Storm Julia
is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the Florida
Peninsula and adjacent waters north of 28N and west of 79W. To the
east; a weak 1012 mb surface low is located near 31N61W. A surface
trough extends from the low to 28N65W. Isolated showers are
observed around the low. A surface trough extends across the
central Atlantic waters from 14N61W to 22N53W. Scattered moderate
convection prevails along this trough. A surface ridge extends
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a pair of highs
centered near 34N39W and 36N24W. Expect within the next 24 hours
for the low in the west Atlantic to dissipate. T.D. Twelve and the
tropical wave will continue moving west enhancing
convection/winds/seas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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