[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Julia at 15/0900 UTC is near
32.0N 79.6W, or about 51 nm to the SSE of Charleston in South
Carolina. Julia is moving eastward, or 90 degrees, 2 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots.
Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within
120 nm to 240 nm of the center in the E semicircle. isolated
moderate elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the E
semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Ian at 15/0900 UTC is near 35.5N
52.4W. Ian is moving north-northeastward, or 25 degrees, 17
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55
knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 120 nm to 240 nm of the center in the N
semicircle. isolated moderate elsewhere within 360 nm of the
center in the S semicircle. A surface trough is 320 nm to the
south of Ian, along 30N51W 20N55W 12N60W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 120 nm on either side of the line 25N52W 18N55W 14N59W.
Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the
Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

The center of Tropical Depression TWELVE at 15/0900 UTC is near
17.6N 29.3W. TWELVE is moving westward, or 275 degrees, 14
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40
knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong within 240 nm of the center in the E semicircle.
isolated moderate elsewhere within 400 nm of the center. Please
read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the Forecast/Advisory under
the AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 16/0000 UTC, consists
of: the persistence of a cyclonic gale in CAPE VERDE due to a
tropical storm, and the persistence of a northerly near gale or
gale in AGADIR, TARFAYA, and locally CANARIAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20N42W 16N45W 10N46W,
moving westward 15 knot. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible from 10N to 20N between 40W and 50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

Part of the Monsoon Trough remains inland in Africa. Another
part of the Monsoon Trough is along 14N30W to 11N40W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N40W to 09N49W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong from 02N to 10N between 10W
and 25W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 16N
between 30W and 37W. isolated moderate within 60 nm to 120 nm on
either side of 13N38W 10N45W 07N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N96W.
Cyclonic wind flow is apparent from 26N southward from 89W
westward, covering the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface trough is along 30N81W 28N90W 25N95W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 23N to
29N between 86W and 94W. A second surface trough is in the
southwestern corner of the area, about 60 nm to the west of the
western part of the Yucatan Peninsula. This feature is mainly a
diurnal trough. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from
20N southward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the
Gulf of Mexico.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KGUL, KVKY, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: light rain in Port Isabel during the last few
observations. MVFR in Hebbronville. light rain in Rockport.
MVFR in Jasper. LOUISIANA: light rain in Slidell. from
MISSISSIPPI to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, to
22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation
center. Upper level SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 78W westward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N between Hispaniola and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the SE corner of the
area from 15N southward between 60W and 70W, with an inverted
trough. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 15N southward between 60W and 71W.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.55 in Curacao,
0.37 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras, and 0.13 in Havana in Cuba.

The monsoon trough is along 08N74W in Colombia, to 09N80W in
Panama, beyond NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 10N to 12N between 76W and the
coast of Central America. numerous strong from 05N to 10N
between 77W and 82W, in Colombia, and Panama mostly, and in the
eastern Pacific ocean just to the south of Panama.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level S to SW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. An
upper level trough extends from the southeastern Bahamas, to
22N74W. The trough continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation
center. Upper level SE wind flow covers the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea from 13N southward from 78W westward. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N between Hispaniola and
the Yucatan Peninsula.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE in HAITI: rainshowers
and thunder as of 15/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...in
the Dominican Republic: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling; few
cumulonimbus clouds, as of 15/0000 UTC. Santo Domingo/La
Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago/Puerto Plata:
VFR/no ceilings.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current Jamaica
cyclonic circulation center will move westward during day one.
Expect SW wind flow for most of day one. More SW wind flow will
continue until the end of day one, as an anticyclonic
circulation center will move westward and reach the southern
coastal waters of the Dominican Republic at the end of day one.
the same anticyclonic circulation center will move westward
during day two. Anticyclonic wind flow will move across
Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows that easterly wind flow will prevail during the next 48
hours. The wind flow will be a little bit SE at the start of the
48-hour forecast period, and eventually it will become NE wind
flow, and continue for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N54W to 26N59W and
24N69W, across the southeastern Bahamas, to 22N74W. The trough
continues to a Jamaica cyclonic circulation center.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible between the
surface trough that is to the south of T.S. IAN, and the
Bahamas. in the Caribbean Sea: isolated moderate from 14N
northward between Hispaniola and the Yucatan Peninsula.

An upper level trough is along 26N40W 17N43W 11N49W 06N52W.
The 42W/46W tropical wave is moving under the area of this
trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 21N northward between Africa and 50W. A 1026 mb high
pressure center is near 37N24W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow is from 20N northward from 60W westward, away from any
cyclonic wind flow that is moving around T.D. JULIA. A 1019 mb
high pressure center is near 34N74W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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