[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic with
axis extending from 18N33W to 06N33W, moving west near 20 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scatterometer data depicts a weak low-level cyclonic circulation
trying to develop in the vicinity of this wave with center along
35W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N-16N
between 28W-40W.

A tropical wave is moving across the east Caribbean with axis
extending from 17N65W to 11N65W, moving west near 20 kt over the
past 24 hours. This wave is ahead of a surge of moisture as seen
on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Isolated showers prevail
along the southern portion of the wave affecting northern
Venezuela and adjacent waters mainly south of 13N between 62W-67W.

A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean with axis
from 22N83W to 13N85W, moving west near 15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on
the Total Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate
convection prevails south of 20N between 81W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W to 09N44W. The ITCZ begins at that point and
continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical wave along 34W, scattered moderate convection is observed
south of the Monsoon Trough from 07N-11N between 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered over northern Florida and a 1020 mb high located
over southeast Mexico near 20N97W. As of 08/2100 UTC: an upper-
level low is centered near 25N91W and is reflected at the surface
as a trough that extends from 25N92W to 28N91W. Isolated moderate
convection is observed along the trough between 90W-94W. To the
southeast; the proximity of a tropical wave currently in the
western Caribbean combined with numerous showers and thunderstorms
that cover northern Cuba are enhancing cloudiness and convection
across the Florida Straits and Keys mainly east of 85W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin.
Expect through the next 24 hours for the surface ridge to prevail
across the basin. The northern portion of the tropical wave
located along 86W will reach the southeast Gulf late Friday/early
Saturday with convection.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. The southern portion of a surface
trough extends across northern Cuba with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms affecting the island and adjacent waters
mainly north of 19N between 75W-80W. Scatterometer data depicts
gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except between
68W-76W where moderate to fresh winds are noted. Expect for the
west Caribbean tropical wave will reach the Yucatan peninsula
tonight into early Friday. The east Caribbean tropical wave will
reach the west Caribbean by early this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms are expected during the next 24-48 hours
as a tropical wave approaches from the east.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. An upper-level trough extends over the
west Atlantic. A diffluent flow aloft just east of this trough
combined with a surface trough that extends from 21N77W to 29N72W
are enhancing scattered moderate convection across the west
Atlantic between 70W-78W. To the east; a surface trough extends
from 24N65W to 28N61W with isolated showers. A 1014 mb surface low
is centered near 18N57W with a trough extending from the low to
20N57W. Isolated moderate convection is observed in the vicinity
of these features. Another surface trough extends from 26N47W to
30N46W with isolated convection. A surface ridge dominates
the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near
36N45W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the west Atlantic
surface trough to move west reaching South Florida and enhancing
convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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