[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 33W from 6N-
17N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is
embedded within a broad surge of moisture as seen on the Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Small clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are within 210 nm either side of
the wave axis south of 16N.

Tropical wave in the east Caribbean extends along 63W from 11N-
17N moving west near 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave is ahead
of a surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water
Imagery and is beneath an inverted upper low enhancing isolated
showers and possible thunderstorms over the Windward Islands
south of 15N between 59W-63W.

Tropical wave in the west Caribbean extends along 82W/83W from
22N to inland over Central America moving west near 20 kt over
the past 24 hours. Wave is embedded within a broad surge of
moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery and is
along the southwest side of an upper ridge enhancing the
associated activity. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 14N-19N between 78W-83W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of the
wave axis between 13N-21N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W and continues along 12N22W 13N27W 9N35W
9N38W to 6N42W where the ITCZ begins and continues along 4N48W
to inland over South America near 7N59W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 5N-9N between 32W-41W.
Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are
from 6N to the monsoon trough between 10W-28W, from the monsoon
trough to 15N between 23W-26W, and from 3N-10N between 49W-61W
including the coast of South America.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge over the northwest Caribbean covers the far
southeast Gulf south of 26N east of 84W and is providing
difflunce aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south of 26N east of 84W through the Straits of
Florida and includes west Cuba, south Florida and the Florida
Keys. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a large upper
low centered near 25N90W and is generating isolated showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms from 22N-30N between 84W-94W. A
weak surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into
the Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1020 mb high over western North
Carolina and a 1021 mb high over south Georgia. The surface
ridge will persist into the weekend. The north portion of the
west Caribbean tropical wave will reach the southeast Gulf late
Friday/early Saturday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper ridge anchored over central Cuba extends a ridge axis
south to over Central America enhancing the activity associated
with the tropical wave moving through the west Caribbean. The
monsoon trough extends across the southwest Caribbean from
Colombia near 11N74W through a weak 1011 mb low near 11N80W then
across Nicaragua 13N85W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of the monsoon trough west of 78W to
inland over Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. The trade winds
are generating isolated showers and and possible isolated
thunderstorms from 13N-18N between 64W-80W. The west Caribbean
tropical wave will reach the Yucatan peninsula tonight into
early Friday. The east Caribbean tropical wave will reach the
west Caribbean early in the weekend and exit early next week.

...HISPANIOLA...

Skies are generally clear across the island this afternoon with
some clouds building over the south Dominican Republic. This
could bring evening showers and possible thunderstorms to the
island later this evening/early tonight. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected over the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper trough over the northwest Atlantic and lingering
moisture over the west Atlantic is generating scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms within 45 nm of a line from
28N78W to 31N69W. A surface trough extends across the remainder
of the west Atlantic from 29N71W across the Bahama Islands to
the north coast of Cuba near 21N76W generating scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm either
side of the surface trough. A weak surface ridge is west of the
above surface trough covering the southeast CONUS and into Gulf
of Mexico. A second surface trough extends from 26N60W to 23N65W
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
75 nm either side of the surface trough. A third surface trough
is northeast of the Lesser Antilles, extending from 20N56W to
16N57W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
90 nm of a line from 16N54W to 19N58W. A surface ridge dominates
the remainder of the Atlantic anchored by a 1032 mb high near
36N44W. The west Atlantic surface trough will shift into south
Florida through Friday. A surface ridge will build in the wake
of this surface trough between Bermuda and northeast Florida
through early next week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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