[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080903
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
503 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 17N
with axis near 31W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind
shear and abundant moisture from the surface to 850 mb as shown by
CIRA LPW imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft
support scattered showers and tstms from 05N to 15N between 25W
and 36W. Significant development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a
little more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while this system moves
westward and then west-northwestward into the central Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the far E Caribbean waters extending from
08N to 19N with axis near 62W, moving W at 20 kt within the last
24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer
wind shear. However, water vapor imagery indicate there is strong
dry air subsidence in that region, which continue to hinder shower
activity.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 10N to
21N with axis near 84W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. Except for the far NW Caribbean, abundant moisture in the
wave environment, favorable deep layer wind shear and diffluence
aloft support scattered showers and isolated tstms between 80W
and 85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N16W and continues along 10N31W to 07N43W. Aside
from the convection related to the tropical wave along 31W,
scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 12N E of 19W and
from 05N to 10N between 47W and 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge anchored over the SE CONUS extends SSW
across the basin and provides ESE gentle to moderate wind flow. Water
Vapor imagery continue to show strong dry air subsidence across
the entire basin, which favors fair weather. A tropical wave
currently over W Caribbean waters will move across the Yucatan
Peninsula today and into the Bay of Campeche Friday. Some showers
and tstms associated with the wave are expected in the Yucatan
Channel and Peninsula as well as the SW basin through Sunday.
Little changes expected elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave
that is moving across the western Caribbean generating scattered
showers and tstms over central and eastern Cuba and adjacent
waters, including the Windward Passage. A second tropical wave is
moving from the Lesser Antilles to the E Caribbean basin this
morning. However, little shower activity is anticipated with it. Please
refer to the tropical waves section for details. The second area
with active weather is the SW basin where the tropical wave, low
pressure over NW Colombia and the presence of the E Pacific
monsoon trough support heavy showers and tstms within 150 nm off
the coast of Colombia. Fair weather and moderate trades dominate
elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to the Yucatan Peninsula
today.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave, currently moving across the W Caribbean Sea
support scattered to isolated showers in the Windward Passage and
cloudiness over Haiti. This shower activity will cease after
sunrise today as the wave continues to move W toward the Yucatan
Peninsula. Fair weather is then expected to continue across the
Island through early Saturday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between an upper low over the SE Gulf of Mexico and
a broad upper anticyclone centered over the central Bahamas support
scattered to isolated showers across the Bahamas and the Great
Bahama Bank. That shower activity is also associated with a
surface trough that extends from 26N74W to 18N76W. Scattered
showers and isolated tstms are also N of 26N between 67W and 75W. Lastly,
a surface trough in the deep tropics supports heavy showers and
tstms from 15N to 20N between 53W and 58W. The remainder of the
basin is dominated by a broad but weak surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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