[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
19N with axis near 36W, moving W at 20 kt within the last 24
hours. There is a center of low pressure associated with the wave
centered near 11N36W, which is forecast to move WNW to near 13N41W
within the next 24 hours. The wave is in a region of mainly
favorable to neutral deep layer wind shear and abundant moisture
from the surface to 850 mb as shown by CIRA LPW imagery. That
environment along with divergent flow aloft support scattered
showers and tstms from 07N to 17N between 30W and 42W. Some
gradual development of this system is possible during the next
several days, and a tropical depression could form while this
system moves WNW into the central Atlantic by early next week.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean waters extending from 10N
to 17N with axis near 67W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of neutral to unfavorable deep
layer wind shear and water vapor imagery continue to show strong
dry air subsidence, which hinder shower activity at the time.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean extending from 13N to
23N with axis near 87W, moving W at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. Abundant moisture in the wave environment, favorable deep
layer wind shear and diffluence at the middle levels support
isolated showers from 15N to 23N between 78W and 88W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W to 12N30W to 07N43W. The ITCZ begins near
07N43W and continues to 04N52W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical wave along 36W, scattered moderate convection is
observed south of the Monsoon Trough from 06N to 12N E of 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge across the Atlantic extends WSW across the
Florida Peninsula and covers the Gulf waters, thus providing ESE
gentle flow. The exception to this is the Bay of Campeche where
winds are from the NE due to a tropical wave that is expected to
move across the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning. Mainly
unfavorable deep layer wind shear and strong dry air subsidence
across the entire basin continue to favor fair weather. The
tropical wave will move across into the Bay of Campeche Friday
night through Saturday with possible showers. Little changes
expected elsewhere.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The main feature in the basin continues to be a tropical wave
that is moving across the NW Caribbean generating scattered to
isolated showers over central and eastern Cuba and adjacent
waters N of 15N. A second tropical wave is just S of Puerto Rico.
However, no shower activity is associated with it. Please refer
to the tropical waves section for details. In the SW basin,
scattered to isolated showers are S of 12N. Fair weather and
moderate trades dominate elsewhere. The tropical wave will move to
the Yucatan Peninsula today. A surface trough will move WNW across
the NE Caribbean Friday evening generating showers across Puerto
Rico and adjacent waters. Shower activity associated with this
trough will impact Hispaniola Saturday through Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather conditions prevail across the island supported by
both unfavorable deep layer wind shear and strong dry air
subsidence from aloft. A surface trough moving WNW around the
periphery of the Atlantic surface ridge will approach the Island
Saturday through Sunday. Showers are expected during the weekend
associated with this area of low pressure.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Diffluent flow between an elongated upper low over the NW Atlantic and
a broad upper anticyclone centered over the Straits of Florida support
scattered to isolated heavy showers across the central Bahamas
and the Great Bahama Bank. That shower activity is also associated
with a surface trough that extends from 27N73W to 22N78W. Lastly,
a surface low of 1014 mb in the deep tropics supports scattered showers
and tstms from 16N to 20N between 54W and 60W. The remainder of
the basin is dominated by a broad surface ridge.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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