[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 05N20W to 03N28W where the ITCZ begins
and continues along 04N36W to 04N43W. Scattered to isolated
moderate convection is within 240 nm either side of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad an elongated surface ridge covers the eastern CONUS and
extends south across the northern Gulf, thus providing NE to E
gentle to moderate flow mainly north of 26N. In the SE basin, a
shear line is across the Straits of Florida from 24N80W to 23N87W
to 22N91W. Fresh to strong NE flow is within 90 nm north of the
shear line and scattered moderate showers are within 90 nm either
side of the line. In the SW basin, a surface trough extends from
24N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Strong pressure
gradient between this trough and strong high pressure to the west
support fresh to strong NW winds within 60 nm off the coast of
Veracruz. Aloft, SW diffluent flow along with moisture inflow
from the Caribbean support scattered showers from 20N to 26N
between 90W and 96W. The surface ridge will be reinforced by a
stronger high pressure system on Tuesday, maintaining fresh to
locally strong winds over the southeast Gulf and the Straits of
Florida through early Tuesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shear line across the Florida Straits supports scattered to
isolated showers over western Cuba. In the NW Caribbean,
scatterometer and surface data show a 1011 mb low NE of Honduras
near 16N82W with a surface trough extending along the Yucatan
Peninsula adjacent waters to 17N87W to the low center to 13N82W.
Divergence aloft and abundant moisture in the region support
scattered heavy showers S of 20N W of 85W and isolated showers
elsewhere within 120 nm of the low center. In the SW basin, the
extension of the monsoon trough between Costa Rica and Colombia
support scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms south
of 18N west of 78W. A 1010 mb low is centered in the SW N Atlc
just N of Puerto Rico, which is supporting scattered to isolated
showers over northern Hispaniola, across Puerto Rico and in the
NE Caribbean N of 16N E of 70W. Gentle trades dominate over the
central and eastern basin; gentle variable flow is elsewhere. The
low will weaken to a surface trough today with the trough
gradually dissipating through Tuesday. Strong northeast winds will
develop late tonight in the lee of Cuba as the high over the NE
CONUS moves E-SE. These strong winds will spread across the
Yucatan, southern Cuba adjacent waters and Windward Passage
Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

A 1010 mb low just N of Puerto Rico continue to be the source of
scattered to isolated showers across northern Hispaniola and the
Mona passage. The low center is forecast to move S-SW closer to
Puerto Rico through Tuesday sunrise. This will result in showers
increasing and expanding across the entire Hispaniola tonight,
continuing into Tuesday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A shear line extends from Andros Island SW across the Florida
Straits supporting isolated showers within 90 nm either side of
the line. Scattered showers are across the remainder Bahamas, the
Great Bahama Bank and northern Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent
waters associated with a 1010 mb low near 21N66W. Scattered heavy
showers are to the E-SE of the low from 16N to 22N between 57W and
66W. A surface trough extends from 32N59W to 27N68W with isolated
showers within 60 nm either side of its axis. In the north central
basin a 1015 mb low is centered near 29N48W with a surface trough
extending from the low to 22N52W. Two more surface troughs without
convection are along 35W and 46W, respectively. Surface ridging is
elsewhere. The west Atlantic 1010 mb low will drift southwest
through tonight to near the Mona Passage then move northeast into
the central Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong high pressure
will build over the northwest Atlantic pushing weak cold fronts
south to along 27N where they will wash out through midweek.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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