[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 05N23W to 06N31W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 07N43W. Scattered moderate convection is within
250 nm either side of the Monsoon Trough between 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An elongated surface ridge covers the southeastern CONUS and
extends south reaching the northern Gulf waters. To the southwest,
a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 25N92W to
19N93W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the northern
portion of the trough from 23N-25N and west of 93W. A shearline
was analyzed from 22N91W to 23N85W to 25N80W. Scatterometer data
depicts fresh to strong northeasterly winds from 23N-28N and east
of 90W while gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail elsewhere.
The surface ridge will be reinforced by a stronger high pressure
system on Tuesday, maintaining fresh to locally strong winds over
the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through this period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A shearline across the Florida Straits supports isolated showers
over western Cuba. In the western portion of the basin,
scatterometer and surface data depict a surface trough that
extend from 21N86W to 17N85W to 15N82W to 11N83W. This feature
combined with a diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered
moderate convection in the vicinity of the trough from 15N-20N
and west of 84W affecting portions of Honduras, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula. To the south, the Monsoon trough extends across
Costa Rica and Panama enhancing scattered moderate convection
south of 12N between 78W-83W. Another surface trough extends
over Hispaniola with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of
17N between 68W-72W. This trough and the proximity of a 1009 mb
surface low just north of Puerto Rico are supporting scattered
showers across the northeastern Caribbean waters north of 17N and
east of 67W. Scatterometer data depict gentle trades across the
basin. Strong northeast winds will develop late tonight as the
surface high over the northeast CONUS moves east-southeast. These
winds will spread across the Yucatan, Cuba's adjacent waters and
Windward Passage on Tuesday and prevail through early Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

A 1009 mb surface low just north of Puerto Rico extends its trough
across the southern portion of the island enhancing scattered
moderate convection south of 19N between 69W-72W. The low is
forecast to move south-southwest closer to Puerto Rico through
early Tuesday. This will result in an increase in shower activity
across the entire island through the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 mb surface low is located just north of Puerto Rico near
20N67W with surface trough extending from Hispaniola near 18N72W
to the low to 24N57W to a 1014 mb low located near 29N48W. An area of
scattered showers is observed within 460 nm east of these
features between 40W-65W. A pair of surface troughs extend from
20N46W to 16N49W and from 19N36W to 13N37W. Isolated showers are
observed along the troughs. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.
The surface low in the southwest Atlantic will drift southwest
through tonight to near the Mona Passage then move northeast into
the central Atlantic through Wednesday. A strong high pressure
will build over the northwest Atlantic pushing weak frontal
boundaries south to along 27N enhancing winds/seas.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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