[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 17N16W to a 1010 mb low near 16N19W then continues
south along 10N23W to 7N29W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 6N34W 4N41W to 4N51W. Small clusters of scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 1N-12N between 10W-20W.
Scattered clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from the equator to 8N between 20W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak remnant surface trough remains across the southwest Gulf
from 23N97W to 20N94W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 60 nm of a line from 23N93W to 20N95W. A
large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the Gulf with
south to west flow aloft. Isolated showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are from 23N-27N west of 91W to the coast of Texas
and northeast Mexico. A surface ridge extends from over the
southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1020 mb high in the
west Atlantic, a 1019 mb high in the north Gulf near 30N88W, and
a 1020 mb high over northeast Mexico. A shearline extends across
the south Gulf from the Straits of Florida near 24N79W along
23N84W to 23N92W. Strong easterly surface flow is north of the
shearline and is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 60 nm either side of the shearline east of
89W. The surface ridge will be reinforced by a stronger high
pressure system on Tuesday, maintaining fresh to locally strong
winds over the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through
early Tuesday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean near 14N81W and
dominates the entire Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the west
Atlantic. At the surface is a 1009 mb low centered in the
northwest Caribbean near 17N85W with a surface trough extending
from 19N87W through the low to 15N82W. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-20N between 85W-
87W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
60/75 nm either side of the surface trough east of the low. The
monsoon trough extends along 10N/11N across the southwest
Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 13N west of 75W.
Diffluence across the north Caribbean is generating lingering
scattered showers north of 17N east of 80W from the Leeward
Islands to Cuba. The southeast Caribbean is under clear skies
this morning. The low will weaken to a surface trough today with
the trough gradually dissipating through Tuesday. Strong
northeast winds will develop late tonight in the lee of Cuba as
the high over the west Atlantic strengthens. These strong winds
will spread across the Yucatan and with Windward Passages
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are lingering across the island this morning.
The low north of Puerto Rico will drift southwest through
tonight to near the Mona Passage then move northeast into the
central Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday. Lingering moisture will
persist through Tuesday night giving the island the chance of
showers and possible thunderstorms.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west
Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. A remnant dissipating
stationary front extends through 32N57W to 28N68W with isolated
showers within 60 nm of the front. A surface ridge is over the
far west Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high west of Bermuda
near 23N73W and covering the area west of the above front. A
lingering a 1008 mb low is north of Puerto rico near 21N67W with
scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms streaming
to the southeast and covering the area within 90 nm of a line
from the low to 18N53W. A shortwave upper trough is in the
central Atlantic north of 25N between 44W-52W with a surface
trough extending from 30N48W through a weak 1014 mb low near
26N51W continuing to 21N58W. The shortwave upper trough is
generating scattered to numerous showers north of 25N between
40W-46W. A second remnant surface trough extends from 22N35W to
15N32W with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from
15N-19N between 30W-35W. The west Atlantic 1008 mb low will
drift southwest through tonight to near the Mona Passage then
move northeast into the central Atlantic Tuesday into Wednesday.
Strong high pressure will build over the northwest Atlantic
pushing weak cold fronts south to along 27N where they will wash
out through midweek.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net