[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The tropical wave has lost it's identity and was dropped from the
31/0000 UTC analysis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 16N17W to a 1010 mb low near 16N19W then continues
south along 9N22W to 6N28W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 5N35W to 4N41W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are within 180/210 nm along the coast of west
Africa south of 13N west of 10W, from the equator to 9N between
20W-26W, and from 7N to just south of the equator between 28W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The small upper low noted on water vapor imagery is now centered
inland over Texas near Corpus Christi with a narrow upper trough
axis extending south across Mexico into the east Pacific region.
A weak surface trough remains across the southwest Gulf from
23N97W to 19N94W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 90 nm northeast of the surface trough
between 20N-22N. A large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean
covers the remainder of the Gulf with south to west flow aloft.
A surface ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the
Gulf anchored by a 1023 mb high over Alabama, a 1020 mb high in
the west Atlantic, a second 1020 mb high in the north Gulf near
30N87W, and a weaker 1019 mb high over northeast Mexico. A shear
line extends across the southeast Gulf through the Straits of
Florida near 24N80W along 23N86W to 23N92W. Strong easterly
surface flow is north of the shearline and is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the shearline
to 28N east of 93W including the Florida Keys. These strong
winds will persist through midweek. The surface ridge will be
reinforced by a stronger high pressure system on Tuesday,
maintaining these winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean near 14N79W and
dominates the entire Caribbean, extending over the Gulf of
Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a 1009 mb low
centered in the northwest Caribbean near 18N85W with a surface
trough extending from 20N87W through the low to 15N82W.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
from 16N-22N between 84W-87W and scattered showers and possible
isolated thunderstorms are within 45 nm either side of the
surface trough east of the low. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are moving west through the southwest Caribbean
south of 13N west of 77W. Diffluence across the north Caribbean
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north
of 17N east of 80W from the Leeward Islands to Cuba. The
southeast Caribbean is under clear skies tonight. The low will
open up to a surface trough overnight. Strong northeast winds
will develop Tuesday in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage
as the high over the west Atlantic strengthens.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the
island tonight. The low north of Puerto Rico will drift south
through Tuesday to near the Mona Passage before moving northeast
into the central Atlantic. Lingering moisture will persist
through Tuesday night giving the island showers and possible
thunderstorms.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west
Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are south of 25N west of 79W through the
Straits of Florida. A remnant cold front extends through 32N58W
to 31N61W then dissipates along 29N69W to 28N77W. A surface
ridge is over the far west Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high
west of Bermuda near 23N67W and covering the area west of the
above cold front. A shearline is to the south extending from
26N68W across the Bahama Islands to the Straits of Florida and
into the Gulf of Mexico near 24N80W. A lingering a 1010 mb low
is north of Puerto rico near 21N67W with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms are from 20N-23N between 64W-
69W. Clusters of scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are from 17N-22N between 53W-63W. A shortwave
upper trough is in the central Atlantic north of 27N between 45W-
53W with a weak 1014 mb low near 27N51W and a surface trough
extending south to 24N54W. The shortwave upper trough is
generating scattered to numerous showers north of 25N between
40W-48W. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic is
supporting a surface trough entering the region near 32N18W and
extending to 28N22W. A second remnant surface trough extends
from 22N31W to 15N34W with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 90 nm of a line from 15N30W to 21N35W. The
1010 mb low will drift south through Tuesday before moving
northeast into the central Atlantic. The west Atlantic cold
front will move into the central Atlantic Monday. Another cold
front will move into the west Atlantic Tuesday.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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