[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 51W/52W
from 10N-17N moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough and is embedded within an area of
moderate moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 75W south of 18N to
inland over Colombia moving west near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with weak 700 mb trough south of 13N and
is embedded within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep
convection. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
from 16N-18N between 74W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N16W to 8N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 5N29W 8N41W to 9N49W. Clusters of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 2N-6N between
24W-35W. A surface trough extends from 15N34W to 8N38W with
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 75 nm of
line from 13N33W to 16N30W. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 9N-13N between 43W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near
25N95W with trough axis extending south across Mexico near
Tampico to the southwest coast of Mexico near 17N100W then
continues into the east Pacific region. This upper trough is
inducing a weak surface trough across the southwest Gulf from
near Tampico to 19N92W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are southwest of the surface trough to the coast
of Mexico. A large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers
the remainder of the Gulf with southwest flow aloft. A surface
ridge extends from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf
anchored by a 1026 mb high along the North Carolina/Virginia
border and a weaker 1021 mb high over northeast Mexico. Strong
easterly surface flow is over the southeast and south/central
Gulf. This easterly surface low is generating scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of a line from 24N80W
along 24N90W to 26N96W including south Florida, the Florida
Keys, and the Straits of Florida. These strong winds will
persist through early Sunday. Strong northwest winds will
continue near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through late Sunday.
The surface ridge will weaken early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean near 15N74W and
dominates the entire Caribbean, extending over the Gulf of
Mexico and the west Atlantic. At the surface is a 1008 mb low
centered in the northwest Caribbean near 18N85W with a surface
trough extending from 19N87W through the low to 17N81W. Clusters
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 16N-21N
between 81W-87W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly
clear skies tonight. The low will drift south and weaken to a
just surface trough on Sunday and then dissipate on Monday. The
strong winds north of the low will diminish this afternoon. The
Caribbean tropical wave will lose it's identity by Sunday. The
next tropical wave will enter the Caribbean on Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper ridge anchored over the Caribbean is giving the island
westerly flow aloft and coupled with the easterly surface flow
is generating scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms over Haiti this morning. Lingering moisture and
the persistent upper and surface flows will continue to give the
island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.
The surface trough north of the Virgin Islands will move west
across the Dominican Republic Sunday, increasing showers and
thunderstorms.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west
Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. A dissipating stationary
front is draped across the west Atlantic extending through
32N47W along 28N58W to 25N72W with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm either side of the front.
The combination of westerly flow aloft and easterly surface flow
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 90 nm of a line from over Cuba near 22N79W to 26N74W. A
surface trough extends from 24N73W across the Bahamas to the
east tip of Cuba near 20N75W generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 75/90 nm either side of the
surface trough. A second surface trough is north of the Virgin
Islands extending from 23N62W to 19N63W with scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms within 200 nm east of the
surface trough north of 19N. An upper trough over the northeast
Atlantic extends south to the Canary Islands supporting a 1010
mb low just south of the Azores and a surface trough entering
the region near 32N23W and extending to 26N26W. The upper trough
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
within 120 nm along the coast of Africa from 25N-27N. A weak
surface trough is to the south extending from 23N26W to 16N29W
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm
either side of the trough south of 20N. The west Atlantic
stationary front will drift north and dissipate through Sunday.
The surface trough over the east tip of Cuba will move west
through tonight and dissipate Sunday. The surface trough north
of the Virgin Islands will move west across Puerto Rico tonight
and stall over Hispaniola on Sunday into early next week. Strong
winds will persist across the northern Bahamas through late
Saturday and diminish Sunday.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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