[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291754
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic with axis
extending from 17N52W to 10N53W, moving west at about 15 kt over
the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough
as noted in global guidance and is embedded within an area of
moderate moisture. No associated deep convection is observed at
this time.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 19N75W to 10N76W, moving west near 10 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave is located in an area of abundant moisture
as noted in TPW imagery. Isolated showers are observed across the
northern portion of the wave affecting southwestern Hispaniola
and adjacent waters north of 16N between 71W-75W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N19W where the ITCZ begins and continues
to 08N36W to 06N46W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 00N-09N between 10W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low is noted on Water Vapor imagery and global
guidance centered near 24N96W with its trough axis extending
southwest across Mexico then reaching the east Pacific region. A
mild diffluent flow aloft prevails east of this low supporting
cloudiness and isolated moderate convection across the central
and east Gulf mainly south of 27N and east of 94W. The strongest
activity is currently affecting the Florida Straits. At the
surface, a trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 24N93W
to 19N93W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a surface
ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 36N79W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds
across the western and central portions of the basin while
fresh to strong easterlies prevail east of 86W. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. A large upper-level ridge
is anchored south of Haiti near 15N74W and extends across the
entire basin. At the surface, a 1008 mb low is centered in the
northwest Caribbean near 18N85W with a surface trough extending
from 20N86W, through the low, to 16N84W. Isolated showers are
observed with these features. The Monsoon Trough extends across
the southern Caribbean along 10N between 76W-83W. Scattered
showers are along and south of this boundary. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle trades across the basin except south of
the low, where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Expect through the
next 24 hours for the surface low to remain nearly stationary
while weakening. The tropical wave will lose its identity by
Sunday. The next tropical wave will enter the Caribbean by Sunday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Lingering moisture from a tropical wave is supporting isolated
showers across southwest Hispaniola and adjacent waters. This
activity will dissipate in the afternoon/evening hours. and the
persistent upper and surface flows will continue to give the
island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. The
surface trough north of the Virgin Islands will move west
approaching the island by Sunday enhancing convection.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A diffluent flow aloft is
supporting cloudiness and isolated convection from 23N27N between
70W-80W. A surface trough extends from 25N72W to 22N74W with
scattered moderate convection. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to
strong northeasterly winds across the western Atlantic mainly west
of 75W. To the east, another surface trough extends from 25N63W
to 21N64W. Isolated showers are observed along this feature. An
area of stratiform convection is noted north of 26N between 56W-
60W in the vicinity of a stationary front located just north of
our area of discussion. A surface trough was analyzed west of the
Cabo Verde Islands from 19N27W to 15N29W. Scattered to numerous
showers are from 14N-19N between 24W-33W. Expect through the next
24 hours for the surface trough just north of the east tip of
Cuba to move west to dissipate. The surface trough north of the
Virgin Islands will move west near Puerto Rico and stall over
Hispaniola. The strong winds across the west Atlantic will
diminish.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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