[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 17N50W to
10N52W moving west near 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a weak 700 mb trough and is embedded within an
area of moderate moisture. No associated deep convection.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 73W/74W south of
18N to inland over Colombia moving west near 10 kt over the past
24 hours. Wave coincides with weak 700 mb trough and is embedded
within an area of deep moisture. No associated deep convection.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms are within 60 nm along the north
coast of Colombia between 70W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from over Africa into the east
Tropical Atlantic near 11N16W to 7N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues along 4N24W to 5N31W. A second monsoon trough is
analyzed from 15N28W along 14N33W through a 1013 mb low near
12N35W to 10N28W where a second ITCZ begins and is analyzed
along 9N44W to 9N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 7N-10N between 44W-50W and from 10N-13N
between 44W-47W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection are from the equator to 6N between 15W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near
26N94W with trough axis extending south across Mexico near
Tampico to another upper low centered along the southwest coast
of Mexico then continuing into the east Pacific region.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 24N-27N
between 92W-95W. This upper trough is inducing a weak surface
trough across the southwest Gulf from 22N97W to 19N93W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 nm
either side of the surface trough and continuing within 60 nm
along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to the Rio Grande. A
large upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the remainder
of the Gulf with southwest flow aloft. A surface ridge extends
from over the southeast CONUS into the Gulf anchored by a 1023
mb high over Alabama and a weaker 1018 mb high over northeast
Mexico. There is a tight pressure gradient between this surface
ridge and the lower pressure over the northwest Caribbean to
create strong easterly surface flow over portions of the south
and east Gulf. This easterly surface low is generating scattered
showers and possible isolated thunderstorms over the southeast
Gulf south of 24N east of 88W including south Florida, the
Florida Keys, and the Straits of Florida. These strong winds
will persist through Sunday. Strong to near gale force winds
will continue near the coast of Veracruz, Mexico through late
Saturday. The surface ridge will weaken early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large upper ridge is anchored in the Caribbean near 14N71W and
dominates the entire Caribbean as well as extends over the Gulf
of Mexico and the west Atlantic. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 20N across Cuba between 78W-82W. At the
surface is a 1008 mb low centered in the northwest Caribbean
near 19N85W with a surface trough analyzed from the low to
15N79W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from
15N-21N between 85W-87W. The remainder of the Caribbean is under
mostly clear skies tonight. The low and surface trough will
persist through early Sunday before gradually dissipating
through early Monday. The tight pressure gradient between the
low and surface ridge north of the basin will result in fresh to
strong winds north of the low through Saturday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper ridge anchored over the Caribbean is giving the island
westerly flow aloft and coupled with the easterly surface flow
is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along
the north coast of the island with scattered showers across the
remainder of the island tonight. Lingering Moisture and the
persistent upper and surface flows will continue to give the
island the chance of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper ridge anchored in the Caribbean covers the west
Atlantic with westerly flow aloft. A dissipating stationary
front is draped across the west Atlantic extending through
32N45W along 28N56W 27N68W to 25N74W with scattered showers and
possible isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm either side of the
front between 51W-71W. The combination of westerly flow aloft
and easterly surface flow is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm of a line from across Cuba
near 22N78W along 24N75W to 25N66W. The north portion of the
tropical wave in the Caribbean is now a surface trough that
extends from 24N72W to the Windward Passage near 19N74W
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within
75 nm west of the surface trough. A second surface trough is to
the east extending from 23N62W to the northern Leeward Islands
near 17N63W with scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms within 150 nm east of the surface trough north of
19N. An upper trough over the northeast Atlantic extends south
to the Canary Islands supporting a 1010 mb low near the Azores
and a surface trough entering the region near 32N21W and
extending along 28N23W to 25N30W. The upper trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 150 nm along
the coast of Africa north of 25N. A weak surface trough is to
the south extending from 23N25W to 16N28W with scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms within 75 nm either side of
the trough. The west Atlantic surface troughs will continue to
westward through Sunday. Strong winds will persist across the
northern Bahamas through late Saturday due to the tight pressure
gradient between the lower pressure over the northwest Caribbean
and the higher pressure to the north. A cold front will move
into the west Atlantic Sunday, weakening the high pressure and
diminishing the strong winds. The front will stall from 32N53W
along 28N65W to south Florida Monday.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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