[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for:
the eastern part of MADEIRA, in AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24
hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 27/0000 UTC,
consists of: the persistence of easterly near gale or gale in
MADEIRA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 03N to 13N between 30W and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 17N61W to 10N64W, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 20N between 55W
and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Senegal near
13N17W, to 10N20W, 08N26W 09N31W and 07N38W. The ITCZ continues
from 07N38W 07N42W and 10N54W. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong from 12N to 14N between 20W and 23W.
widely scattered moderate to strong from 04N to 08N from 30W
eastward, and from 11N to 14N between 25W and 28W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 03N to 16N from 30W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 90W, from the north central Gulf of
Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level NW wind flow is on
the western side of the trough, and upper level SW wind flow is on
the eastern side of the trough. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, on top of the area
of the trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area from 24N
northward. Two surface troughs are in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
25N southward from 90W westward.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward. A shear line cuts across the NW corner of Hispaniola,
across Jamaica, to 16N84W. Convective precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 14N northward
from 70W westward.

The Monsoon Trough is in Colombia from 11N73W to 10N76W to
10N80W, beyond southern Nicaragua, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
to strong from 13N southward from 73W westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.04 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola
at this moment. A shear line cuts across the NE section of Haiti.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in Haiti, and
around the island in its coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI: VFR. FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Barahona: VFR/few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no
ceilings. Puerto Plata: MVFR ceiling.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that day one will consist of SW-to-W wind flow, becoming
generally anticyclonic by the end of day one. Expect generally
anticyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of NE
wind flow moving across the area. Day two will consist of E and SE
wind flow moving across Hispaniola.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
14N64W...

A deep layer trough is along 26N67W 21N65W, into the Caribbean
Sea near 14N64W. A dissipating stationary front passes through
32N58W to 25N65W. A shear line cuts across the NW corner of Hispaniola,
across Jamaica, to 16N84W. Convective precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 14N northward
from 70W westward. A surface trough is along 61W/62W from 19N to
25N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 10N to 30N between 57W and 64W, in the
Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N51W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 05N
to 23N between 40W and 60W. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 15N to 20N between 44W and 50W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
northward from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 28N18W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 20N northward between Africa and 53W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N northward
from 22W eastward.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward from 53W eastward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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