[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The 24 hour OUTLOOK from 2215 UTC 25 Oct
2016, includes the following: Persistence of easterly near gale
or gale over MADEIRA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located over the E Tropical Atlc from 05N36W
to 13N36W drifting W less than 5 kt during the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with an area of deep layer moisture in
precipitable water satellite imagery. The integrity of the wave
is being disrupted by an upper-level trough to the W near 48W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present
from 03N to 12N between 30W to 43W.

Another tropical wave is located near the Lesser Antilles from
11N62W to 20N60W. The wave is moving WNW around 5 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a broad 700 mb trough. An
upper-level trough over the Caribbean to the W of the wave near
66W is sparking scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over the Lesser Antilles from 13N to 17N between 60W and 63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the E Tropical
Atlc near 12N17W to 09N22W to 09N29W to 07N40W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N40W to 10N54W to 13N58W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is found from 05N to 14N between
20W and 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough crosses the Gulf of Mexico from the
Florida panhandle near 31N87W to the Yucatan peninsula near
21N89W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with the trough are occurring farther to the SE over the
Caribbean. A surface ridge to the N of the Gulf is generally
maintaining moderate to fresh winds W of 90W and fresh to strong
winds E of 90W. High pres over the Gulf will be reinforced by
stronger high pres building S along the eastern seaboard tonight
through the end of the week. This will maintain the stronger
winds over the E Gulf and the Straits of Florida which will
eventually spread across the central Gulf by the end of the
week. Surface troughing is expected to deepen on Thursday over
the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force winds will
develop along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico Thursday night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A deep layered trough extends S over the W Atlc from 31N69W to
Puerto Rico. The trough continues to support a stationary front
extending from 31N60W to NW Haiti and surface troughing from
Puerto Rico to 27N61W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is seen from 19N to 31N between 59W and 65W. Isolated
thunderstorms over the Windward islands are associated with the
tropical wave passing the islands. The monsoon trough extends
along 10N across the SW Caribbean. The trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over
Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. The remainder of the Caribbean
is under mostly clear skies this afternoon. A shearline crosses
the Caribbean from Haiti to Jamaica to 17N82W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring along and N
of the shearline from 15N to 21N between 77W and 86W. Upper-
level troughing over the Yucatan is aiding the convection. This
feature will persist through Wednesday night. The tropical wave
will continue across the E Caribbean through Wednesday night
then weaken as it moves into the central Caribbean Thursday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the island this due to
a deep layer trough with an axis just to the E and the central
Atlc stationary front that extends to NW Haiti. The front is
expected to transition to a shearline tonight. A second cold
front heading SE from the United States E coast is expected to
merge with the stationary front Wednesday night. This will limit
moisture across the island until later in the week. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms could form during the next few days as
the deep layer troughing lingers in the vicinity.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layered trough extends S over the W Atlc from 31N69W to
Puerto Rico. The trough continues to support a stationary front
which extends from 31N60W to NW Haiti and surface troughing
extending from Puerto Rico to 27N61W. The surface ridge
extending S over the Gulf of Mexico also extends SE over the
remainder of the W Atlc W of the above front. A surface ridge
covering the central Atlc is anchored by a 1026 mb high N of the
discussion area near 37N38W. A deep layered trough over the NE
Atlc is inducing a surface trough that extends SW from 1005 mb
low pres over the Canary Islands near 29N17W to 20N25W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms dot the area N of 25N E of 22W. The W
Atlc front will transition to a shearline S of 25N tonight, then
will persist through Wednesday night. Another cold front will
sweep across the N portion of the W Atlc this evening and merge
with the remainder of the stationary front Wednesday night. This
combined boundary will then move E as a cold front due to strong
high pres building over the W Atlc Thursday through the end of
the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$ CAM
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