[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261111
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
711 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for:
the eastern part of MADEIRA, and in AGADIR. This is for the
forecast that is valid until 27/1200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: numerous strong from 05N to 08N between 33W and
36W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 10N to 20N between 55W
and 70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near
07N12W 05N20W, 10N31W 07N39W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W
to 06N45W and 14N60W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 03N to 15N between 10W
and 40W. isolated moderate from 03N to 14N between 40W and 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is along 88W/89W, from the northern Gulf of
Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level NW wind flow is on
the western side of the trough, and upper level SW wind flow is on
the eastern side of the trough. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, on top of the area
of the trough.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area from 24N
northward. Two surface troughs are in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
24N southward from 88W eastward, and from 24N southward from 90W
westward.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Beaumont/Port Arthur. IFR in Conroe. MVFR in
Angleton/Lake Jackson, and in Robstown. LOUISIANA: IFR in the Lake
Charles metropolitan area. MISSISSIPPI: VFR/no ceilings. ALABAMA:
IFR in Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR in Apalachicola. LIFR in Tallahassee.
IFR in Perry. MVFR in the NE part of the Tampa metropolitan area.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W
westward. A shear line cuts across the NW corner of Hispaniola,
across Jamaica, to 16N84W. Convective precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 14N northward
from 70W westward.

The Monsoon Trough is in Colombia from 11N72W, beyond 10N in
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
14N southward from 72W westward.

The 24-HOUR rainfall total in inches for the period ending at
26/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...is 0.04 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving across Hispaniola
at this moment. A shear line cuts across the NE section of Haiti.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible in Hispaniola,
and around the island in its coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo
Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no
ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: thunder and rain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that SW wind flow will
move across the area, with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500
mb shows that day one will consist of SW-to-W wind flow, becoming
generally anticyclonic by the end of day one. Expect generally
anticyclonic wind flow across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist of NE
wind flow moving across the area. Day two will consist of E and SE
wind flow moving across Hispaniola.

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
15N64W...

A deep layer trough is along 23N64W 18N63W, into the Caribbean
Sea near 15N64W. A dissipating stationary front passes through
32N57W to 29N61W 25N65W. A shear line continues from 25N65W, cuts
across the NW corner of Hispaniola, across Jamaica, to 16N84W.
Convective precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong from 14N northward from 70W westward. A surface
trough is along 61W/62W from 19N to 26N. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
10N to 30N between 57W and 65W, in the Atlantic Ocean and in the
Caribbean Sea.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N51W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 05N to 23N
between 40W and 60W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 15N to 20N between 44W and 50W.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N
northward from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation
center is near 29N19W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
area that is from 20N northward between 27W and 53W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N northward from 23W
eastward. A 1004 mb low pressure center is near 29N18W. A surface
trough extends from the Madeira Archipelago to the 1004 mb low
pressure center, to 24N19W and 21N24W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N
northward between 27W and 53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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