[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 170837
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016

Nicole continues to exhibit a tropical appearance on satellite
imagery, with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a large ragged
eye.  The current intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on recent
scatterometer data, and this is also consistent with the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Although not much weakening
is anticipated during the next couple of days, the cyclone is now
expected to lose tropical characteristics in 24 hours since, by that
time, it should be over SSTs colder than 20 deg C.  Soon thereafter,
the system is forecast to become attached to a nearby frontal zone
and make the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone.  By
96 hours, global models show the low being absorbed by another large
extratropical cyclone near Greenland.

Nicole continues to move northeastward at around 8 kt.  The system
has yet to get caught up in the stronger mid-latitude westerlies
that lie just to the north.  However, a shortwave trough moving
through Atlantic Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate
northeastward soon.  As the trough amplifies, the cyclone is likely
to continue to accelerate and turn north-northeastward to northward
later in the forecast period.

The 12-ft seas radii and predicted wind radii, as well as the
position and intensity forecasts are mainly based on analyses and
forecasts from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0900Z 41.0N  45.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 42.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  18/1800Z 51.5N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/0600Z 56.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0600Z 65.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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