[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 170244
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016

Cloud tops have continued to cool around Nicole's eye, and the eye
itself has become a little more distinct during the past several
hours.  AMSU data from 2029 UTC yielded a CIMSS intensity estimate
of 71 kt, and since the convective pattern has improved since the
last advisory, it is assumed that the cyclone has not lost any
strength.  The maximum winds therefore remain 70 kt.

Global models fields indicate that Nicole should maintain its deep
warm core for at least another 24 hours.  By 36 hours, however, the
cyclone is likely to become attached to a nearby frontal zone to
its west, at which point Nicole would become extratropical.
Neither the global models nor the SHIPS and LGEM models show much
weakening during the next couple of days, and Nicole is expected to
maintain hurricane intensity for the next 48 hours.  Some weakening
is forecast by day 3 with Nicole moving over very cold water, and
then the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger
extratropical low by day 4 while it moves between Iceland and
Greenland.  No changes were made to the updated NHC intensity
forecast compared to the previous advisory.

Nicole took a jog toward the north since the last advisory, but the
longer-term motion is estimated to be 040/8 kt.  A shortwave trough
moving eastward across Quebec is expected to emerge off the coast
of Atlantic Canada late tomorrow, with the preceding flow causing
Nicole to accelerate toward the northeast and then north-northeast
by 36 hours.  A north-northeastward motion should continue up until
the time Nicole is absorbed by the larger extratropical low near
Greenland.  The updated NHC track forecast lies near the TVCN
multi-model consensus, and it was nudged a bit west of the previous
forecast primarily to account for the recent northward jog.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 40.5N  45.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 41.6N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 44.3N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 48.9N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/0000Z 53.6N  37.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/0000Z 62.2N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net