[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 171433
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016

Nicole is still maintaining its status as a hurricane.  The latest
satellite images show a ragged eye feature with broken bands of
deep convection around the eye and to the west of the center.  The
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt,
therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value.  Nicole
will likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday
when it moves over SSTs colder than 20 deg C and begins to interact
with a frontal zone.  Little change in intensity is expected even
after post-tropical transition occurs, and Nicole is forecast to
become an even larger cyclone over the north Atlantic during the
next couple of days.

The hurricane is moving slowly northeastward at 8 kt as it remains
cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow.  A mid- to upper-level
trough currently over Atlantic Canada is expected to move eastward,
which should cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward to
northeastward during the next couple of days.  The NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in best agreement
with the various consensus aids.

The main hazard associated with Nicole continues to be the large
area of high seas.  Swells from Nicole will continue to affect much
of the north Atlantic basin during the next couple of days.

The post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from
NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 41.4N  44.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 43.6N  42.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 48.2N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/0000Z 53.4N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  19/1200Z 57.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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