[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
159 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N.
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Nicole at 17/0300 UTC is near 40.5N 45.5W.
Nicole is moving toward the NE, or 40 degrees, 8 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within
90 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Please read the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

No tropical wave has been analyzed in the Atlantic basin at this
time.

A surface trough is along 59W/61W from 12N to 19N. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in
the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 18N between 50W and 60W. An upper
level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean just to the east of the
surface trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near
08N24W, to 08N34W 12N42W, and 11N45W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in disorganized clusters
from 14N southward from 50W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 88W
eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the trough that
was in the NE corner of the area 24 hours ago, and now the same
trough has moved into the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the east of the line
from the coast of Louisiana near 29N89W to the Yucatan Channel,
and from 27N southward from 88W westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the SW corner of the
area. This anticyclonic wind flow is an extension of the upper
level ridge that covers the Caribbean Sea.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the area toward
the SW corner of the area, near the coast of Mexico near 20N.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: none.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR/no ceilings. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake Charles.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in McComb. ALABAMA: MVFR in EvergreenDothan.
FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 83W/84W from eastern sections of
Honduras southward. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
from 18N southward from 83W westward, and elsewhere from 16N
southward from 70W westward. Broad surface low pressure covers the
SW corner of the area from 15N southward from 72W westward.

An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Uraba
of Colombia northwestward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.49 in Guadeloupe,
and 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective
precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N to
20N between 75W and 81W in the Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo Domingo
and La Romana: VFR/no ceilings; few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta
Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no ceilings. Puerto Plata:
MVFR; few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area for most of day one, becoming W wind flow at
the end of day one. W wind flow will move across the area for the
first half of day two. SW wind flow will move across the area for
the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows SW-to-W wind flow will move across the area during day one.
SW wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 MB show that an east-to-west oriented
ridge that will be across the area at the beginning of day one
eventually will give way to SW wind flow for the rest of day one.
Expect SW wind flow during day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is in the western sections of the Atlantic
Ocean, from 32N76W to the waters that are between the Bahamas and
Florida. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 23N northward from 56W westward. Convective precipitation
that is affecting the Bahamas is described in the second
paragraph, whose subject is the frontal boundary with a shear
line.

An upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough supports a cold front
that passes through 32N38W to 28N42W. The front becomes stationary
and it continues from 28N42W to 22N50W 20N60W and 21N68W. A shear
line continues from 21N68W, to the SE Bahamas, across parts of SE
Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea near 19N82W. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 150 nm
to the east of the front from 27N northward. Rainshowers are
possible elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the frontal
boundary from 68W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 120 nm on either side of the shear line between 68W and 74W
near the Bahamas, and from 18N to 20N between 75W and 81W in the
Caribbean Sea.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean
from 10N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level trough passes
through 32N17W to 26N23W, to a 20N33W cyclonic circulation center,
to 12N36W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure
center that is near 32N24W, to 29N26W 28N28W 26N30W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between
Africa and 24W. A second surface trough is along 25N27W 21N30W
17N36W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 75 nm
on either side of the second trough.

A 1015 mb surface high pressure center is near 17N46W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is within 120 nm of the center.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

MT
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