[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 39.7N 45.6W at 16/2100 UTC or
about 534 nm southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving
northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 36N-46N between 40W-50W. See
the latest Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
None.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
a 1009 mb surface low near 08N22W to 10N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-11N between 18W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the basin anchored by a 1022 mb
high centered near 35N79W. A surface trough connected to a 1012 mb
surface low are located over the Bay of Campeche enhancing
cloudiness and isolated convection south of 22N and west of 95W.
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air aloft as an upper-level
trough axis extends over the Florida Peninsula. Scatterometer data
depicts mainly moderate easterly winds prevailing across the basin.
Little change is expected through late Thursday as the next cold
front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts
with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is anchored over the
western Caribbean near 14N80W. Moisture and cloudiness are
increasing across the western Caribbean as a diffluent
environment continues to support scattered showers and
thunderstorms west of 70W affecting Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica,
Cayman Islands, and portions of Central America. Mostly clear
skies and fair conditions are noted on satellite imagery E of 70W.
A shear line extends from the west Atlantic across western Cuba
and into the northwest waters from 21N79W to 20N81W. Scatterometer
data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. During
the next 24-48 hours, global models are suggesting cyclogenesis to
occur N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico resulting in a disruption of
the usual trade wind flow. This system is expected to move
northward across the west Atlantic. A surface trough, currently
located east of the Lesser Antilles, will enter the eastern
Caribbean with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered moderate convection prevails across the island at this
time supported by a diffluent flow aloft combined with abundant
moisture at low levels. This activity is expected to weaken
and dissipate overnight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends across the western Atlantic anchored by a
pair of 1022 mb and 1024 mb highs located near 35N79W and 37N72W.
A diffluent flow aloft supports scattered moderate convection
across the waters between 70W-80W. A shear line extends from
northern Cuba near 22N77W to 21N67W then a cold front extends from
that point to 23N48W to 32N40W. Isolated showers are observed
along the cold front. A surface trough extends to the east of the
Leeward Islands from 19N59W to 15N60W. A pair of surface troughs
extends across the eastern portion of the basin: the first is
from 25N31W to a 1004 mb low centered near 36N18W, and the second
trough is from 17N35W to 25N25W. The far east Atlantic is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1015 mb high centered
near 26N19W. During the next 24-48 hours, global models are
suggesting cyclogenesis to occur N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
This system is expected to move northward across the west
Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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