[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171112
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
712 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Nicole at 17/0900 UTC is near 41.0N
45.2W. Nicole is moving toward the NE, or 35 degrees, 8 knots.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 65 knots with gusts to 80 knots.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong within 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within
120 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Please read the latest
NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 15N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 08N to 10N
between 18W and 20W, and from 10N to 13N between 19W and 26W.

A surface trough is along 59W/0W from 11N to 19N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N between 46W and 60W. An upper level
trough is in the Atlantic Ocean just to the east of the surface
trough.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 11N15W, to 08N20W 07N27W 10N29W 10N35W 12N41W and 11N46W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 01N to 07N between 10W and 15W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 12N southward between 20W and 40W,
and from 01N northward from 04W eastward. Rainshowers are possible
also from 12N southward between 40W and 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 88W
eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the trough that
was in the NE corner of the area 24 hours ago, and now the same
trough has moved into the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery across much of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is
along 29N85W 27N84W 25N83W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers
are possible to the east of the line from the coast of Louisiana
near 29N90W to the Yucatan Channel, and from 27N southward from
89W westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
24N southward from 88W westward, in the SW corner of the area.
This anticyclonic wind flow is an extension of the upper level
ridge that covers the Caribbean Sea, and to the east of an upper
level cyclonic circulation center that is inland in Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from south central Mississippi toward the
SW corner of the area, to the coast of Mexico near 20N.

...FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA
WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR:  none.

MVFR: KXIH AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Hebbronville and Falfurrias and Alice. IFR and MVFR
conditions are in the Corpus Christi metropolitan area. MVFR in
Bay City and Angleton/Lake Jackson. LIFR in Jasper and Conroe.
LOUISIANA: LIFR in parts of the Lake Charles metropolitan area/
MVFR in other parts of the city. LIFR in other parts of LOUISIANA
from Baton Rouge southward to the Gulf of Mexico coast, and
westward to the border with TEXAS. Rain has been reported around
the NE corner of Lake Pontchartrain during the last few
observations. LIFR around the NW corner of Lake Pontchartrain.
MISSISSIPPI: IFR in Natchez and in McComb. LIFR in Hattiesburg,
and in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: IFR in Gulf Shores. MVFR in
Evergreen. FLORIDA: MVFR at the St.Pete/Clearwater International
Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is along 84W/85W from eastern sections of
Honduras southward. A surface trough is along 79W/80W from 18N
southward. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong
from 13N to 17N between 76W and 80W. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 13N southward from 81W westward. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 20N southward from 69W westward.

An upper level ridge extends from the Gulf of Uraba
of Colombia northwestward, into the NW corner of the Caribbean
Sea.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.49 in Guadeloupe,
and 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Convective
precipitation: Warming cloud top temperatures and convective
debris clouds are elsewhere from 17N northward in the Caribbean
Sea between 68W and 82W. Scattered strong is reaching the northern
coast of the island between 68W and 70W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...Santo Domingo:
VFR/no ceilings. Punta Cana: VFR/no ceilings. Santiago: VFR/no
ceilings. Puerto Plata: rainshowers and thunder.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area for most of day one, becoming W wind flow at
the end of day one. W wind flow will move across the area for the
first half of day two. SW wind flow will move across the area for
the second half of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB
shows SW-to-W wind flow will move across the area during day one.
SW wind flow will move across the area during day two. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 700 MB show that an east-to-west oriented
ridge that will be across the area at the beginning of day one
eventually will give way to SW wind flow for the rest of day one.
Expect SW wind flow during day two.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N75W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the western sections of the Atlantic
Ocean from Cuba northward from 70W westward. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward from 55W
westward. Convective precipitation that is affecting the Bahamas
is described in the second paragraph, whose subject is the
stationary front with a shear line.

An upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough supports a stationary
front that passes through 31N39W to 22N50W and 21N66W. A shear
line continues from 21N66W, to the SE Bahamas, to 23N75W and to
23N84W in the SE Gulf of Mexico. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm to the east of
the front from 20N northward. Scattered to numerous strong from
the coast of the Dominican Republic to 22N between 67W and 70W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 21N to 25N
between 69W and 73W. Rainshowers are possible remainder of area
from the Greater Antilles to 30N from 60W westward.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean
from 10N northward from 40W eastward. An upper level trough passes
through 32N17W to 25N24W, to a 19N34W cyclonic circulation
center, to 12N36W. A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low
pressure center that is near 31N24W, to 29N24W 28N29W. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between
Africa and 23W. A second surface trough is along 24N27W 21N30W
17N34W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate within 45 nm
on either side of the second trough.

A surface ridge passes through 32N30W to 24N37W 16N48W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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