[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 131455
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

Southwesterly shear is beginning to affect Nicole.  Microwave
imagery and Bermuda radar indicate that the eye has lost some
definition and become open to the south.  There is also a
significant southwest to northeast tilt between the low-level
center as noted between the radar and satellite presentations
of the eye, and the Air Force center fix that was located near the
extreme western part of the eye seen in satellite imagery.  The Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled the
eastern portion of the eyewall where the strongest winds were
reported overnight, however, they have reported a minimum pressure
961 mb, which is up several millibars since the previous fix.  Based
on the most recent aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates,
the initial wind speed has been set at 105 kt for this advisory.
Although the area of strongest winds in the eastern eyewall are
expected to remain offshore of Bermuda, sustained hurricane-force
winds have been reported on the island during the past couple of
hours. The official observing site at the airport has measured
sustained winds of 67 kt with a gust to 90 kt within the past hour.

Increasingly southwesterly shear and slightly lower sea surface
temperatures along the forecast track of Nicole should cause a
gradual decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours.
After that time, baroclinic forcing is forecast by the global
models to keep Nicole an intense low pressure area over the
north Atlantic through early next week.  The days 3-5 intensity
forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

Nicole has turned northeastward as expected.  The hurricane will
move northeastward with some acceleration in forward speed as it
becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
trough.  The trough is forecast to bypass Nicole in a couple of
days, which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and
meander well southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period.
The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is
again near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 32.3N  64.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 33.8N  62.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 35.5N  58.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 37.0N  54.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 38.3N  51.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  16/1200Z 39.0N  48.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  17/1200Z 39.0N  47.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  18/1200Z 41.0N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Brown
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