[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 130840
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016

Nicole continues to have an impressive satellite presentation with
a warm, well-defined eye and strong eyewall convection.  The last
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a 700-mb wind
of 118 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 114 kt.   These values are close
to the previous mission, and based on these data, the initial
intensity is kept at 115 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 025/13.  All of the guidance show the
core of Nicole very close to Bermuda later today, and only a small
westward adjustment was made to the first part of the forecast.
Nicole is beginning to accelerate generally northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough moving across the northern United States.
However, this trough is forecast to move away from Nicole in a few
days, leaving the cyclone meandering over the North Atlantic well
southeast of Newfoundland. A ridge is then forecast to build over
the far northeastern Atlantic east of Nicole, which should help the
system resume a slow northeastward motion by day 5. The new forecast
is basically an update of the previous one and is very close to the
multi-model consensus.

Southwesterly shear is forecast by all of the global models to
increase rapidly today.  In combination with a slow decrease in
SSTs, these factors will likely cause Nicole to lose strength
soon.  The steady weakening trend is forecast to level off in about
36 hours as baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude shortwave trough
should help maintain Nicole as a strong cyclone through rest of the
forecast period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
previous forecast, the intensity consensus and the global model
fields beyond 48 hours. While no changes were made to the timing of
Nicole becoming post-tropical, there is considerable uncertainty on
exactly what structure Nicole will have in a few days time.
Regardless, all models forecast Nicole to be a large and powerful
cyclone for the next several days.

The forecast at days 3 through 5 has been coordinated with the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 31.1N  65.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  13/1800Z 32.7N  64.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  14/0600Z 34.8N  61.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  14/1800Z 36.4N  57.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  15/0600Z 37.7N  53.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  16/0600Z 39.0N  49.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  17/0600Z 38.5N  49.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  18/0600Z 40.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila
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