[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT45 KNHC 132033
TCDAT5

HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that Nicole is weakening as it moves
away from Bermuda, most likely due to increasing southwesterly
vertical shear.  The eye has mostly disappeared since the last
advisory, and there has been some warming of the cloud tops near the
center.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
are 102 and 90 kt, respectively, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate
is 112 kt.  The initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt based mainly
on the subjective estimates and continuity from earlier aircraft
data.

As mentioned in the previous advisory, increasing southwesterly
shear and slightly lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast
track should cause a gradual decrease in intensity during the next
24 to 36 hours.  After that time, baroclinic forcing forecast by the
dynamical models should keep Nicole as an intense low pressure area
over the north Atlantic through early next week.  What structure the
cyclone might have later in the forecast period is uncertain, with
the GFS and UKMET suggesting that the tropical cyclone warm core
could become secluded with no cold air reaching the center.  Based
on this, the forecast continues to call for a post-tropical cyclone
and not a fully extratropical/frontal cyclone. The intensity
forecast is mainly an update of the previous forecast, and the 3-5
day intensity forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the
NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

The initial motion is now 040/18.  The hurricane will continue
northeastward as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead
of a mid-latitude trough.  The dynamical guidance continues to
forecast that the trough should bypass Nicole in a couple of days,
which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and meander well
southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period. The track
guidance remains in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is again
near the multi-model consensus and the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 33.6N  63.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 35.0N  60.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 36.4N  56.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 37.8N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 38.8N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  16/1800Z 39.0N  48.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  17/1800Z 39.6N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  18/1800Z 42.0N  41.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven
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