[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 30.6N 66.2W at 13/0600 UTC or
about 125 nm SW of Bermuda moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt
with gusts to 140 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 28N-34N between 63W-69W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N37W to 15N35W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 13N.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-16N between 28W-39W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N65W to 15N63W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 61W-66W on
the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the NE
Caribbean Sea. No significant deep convection is occurring with
the wave at this time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 14N17W to
08N21W to 11N32W to 09N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 09N41W to 10N50W to 12N53W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 14W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air and subsidence aloft due in
large part to a NW flow regime over the basin this evening. This
is resulting in overall stable conditions at the surface as high
pressure remains anchored across the SE CONUS with a ridge axis
extending SW across much of the northern Gulf to NE Mexico.
Recent scatterometer data...ship and buoy observations indicate
moderate to fresh NE to E winds which are expected through
Saturday. By Saturday...the ridging across the SE CONUS will shift
E-NE with winds veering E-SE and remaining in the gentle to
moderate breeze range for the remainder of the weekend. Looking
ahead...the next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas
and Louisiana coasts by late next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered near 17N73W over the north-central
Caribbean with axis extending S-SW to 12N76W. Dry N-NW flow aloft
prevails W of the axis providing overall fair skies this evening
with the exception of a few isolated showers occurring in the
vicinity of Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters of Cuba N of
19N between 77W-82W. Other scattered showers and isolated tstms
are occurring S of 15N between 72W-86W...due to the close
proximity of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N/11N. Otherwise...a
weak surface trough is analyzed across Hispaniola providing focus
for isolated showers that continue to move N into the adjacent
coastal waters of the SW North Atlc. Finally...gentle to moderate
trades prevail and are expected to persist through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as
a surface trough extends from 17N73W to near 21N69W. Convection
is expected to continue as an upper level low is centered over the
region near 17N73W through Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of the influence of Hurricane Nicole...surface ridging
prevails across the SE CONUS anchored by a 1024 mb high centered
in south-central Virginia. Primarily moderate to fresh NE winds
are occurring across the SW North Atlc waters with only an area of
scattered showers and tstms occurring across the waters S of the
Bahamas from 21N-24N between 75W-79W. Farther east across the
central and eastern Atlc...a cutoff middle to upper level low is
noted on water vapor imagery near 28N36W that supports a 1014 mb
low centered near 30N41W. Widely scattered showers and isolated
tstms are occurring to the E-SE of the low from 24N-31N between
32W-38W. Finally...an upper level trough continues to sweep over
the Iberian peninsula and portions of NW Africa supporting a
dissipating cold front extending from northern Morocco to near the
Canary Islands. Fresh NW winds follow in wake of the front across
far NE portions of the discussion area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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