[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 31.6N 65.2W at 13/1200 UTC or
about 50 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt
with gusts to 135 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is from 28N-36N between 63W-68W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 10N37W to 18N35W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-40W and a
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along the wave axis near 13N.
Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-16N between 28W-39W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N66W to 15N65W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 63W-69W
on the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the
NE Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-11N
between 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
07N20W to 11N33W to 08N47W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 05N-09N between 15W-26W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N-12N between 39W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates dry air and subsidence aloft due in
large part to a NW flow regime over the basin this morning. This
is resulting in overall stable conditions at the surface as high
pressure remains anchored across the SE CONUS with a ridge axis
extending SW across much of the northern Gulf to NE Mexico. Recent
scatterometer data...ship and buoy observations indicate moderate
to fresh NE to E winds which are expected through Saturday. By
Saturday...the ridging across the SE CONUS will shift E-NE with
winds veering E-SE and remaining in the gentle to moderate breeze
range for the remainder of the weekend. Looking ahead...the next
cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts by late next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered near 18N73W over the north-central
Caribbean with axis extending S-SW to 12N77W. Dry N-NW flow aloft
prevails W of the axis providing overall fair skies this morning
with the exception of a few isolated showers occurring in the
vicinity of Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters of Honduras.
Other scattered showers and tstms are occurring S of 15N between
72W-77W...and S of 13N between 77W-84W due to the close proximity
of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N/11N. Otherwise...gentle to
moderate trades prevail and are expected to persist through
Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this morning as
an upper level low is centered over the region near 18N73W. Broad
surface troughing is expected to remain across the region through
Friday until Hurricane Nicole tracks well north of the discussion
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of the influence of Hurricane Nicole...surface ridging
prevails across the SE CONUS anchored by a 1022 mb high centered
in the western Carolinas. Primarily moderate to fresh NE winds
are occurring across the SW North Atlc waters with only an area of
isolated showers occurring across the waters S of 27N between 71W-
78W. Farther east across the central and eastern Atlc...a cutoff
middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery near
29N36W that supports a 1013 mb low centered near 30N39W. Widely
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring to the E-SE of
the low from 25N-31N between 30W-39W. Finally...an upper level
trough continues to sweep over the Iberian peninsula and portions
of NW Africa supporting a dissipating cold front extending across
Morocco to the Canary Islands. Fresh NW winds follow in wake of
the front across far NE portions of the discussion area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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