[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122352
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 29.6N 66.4W at 13/0000 UTC or
185 nm south-southwest of Bermuda moving north-northeast at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 27N-32N between 65W-69W. See
latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full NHC Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends from 15N33W to
7N36W moving west 15 to 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough and and is embedded within a
surge of moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 8N-12N between 28W-35W.

Tropical wave in the Caribbean extends along 62W/63W from 15N to
inland over Venezuela moving west-northwest 10 to 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough south of 13N
and is embedded within a broad area of moisture. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of a line
from 11N54W to the Lesser Antilles near 15N61W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 14N17W along 11N22W 12N27W to 9N38W where the ITCZ
begins and continues along 8N45W to 11N52W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is from 8N-11N east of 16W to inland over
Africa. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
5N-7N between 12W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad sweeping upper trough covers the Gulf of Mexico this
evening with the upper trough axis extending from the mountains
of North Carolina to along the Florida peninsula to over the
northwest Caribbean. Strong subsidence and dry, stable air aloft
cover most of the Gulf. The exception is in the southwest Gulf
where a surface trough extends from 23N96W to inland over south
Mexico to 18N95W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are within 60 nm along the surface trough. A surface ridge
extends from a 1026 mb high over Virginia into the north/central
Gulf to over Mexico near Tampico. Northeasterly surface flow is
ushering in some low to mid level clouds across the basin with
isolated showers inland and along the immediate coast of the
Florida peninsula. The surface trough will meander in the
southwest Gulf as the surface ridge persists across the
remainder of the basin through the end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The upper trough over the Gulf of Mexico extends over the
northwest Caribbean. An upper ridge extends across Central
America into the Caribbean covering the area south of 18N west
of 78W. An upper low is centered along the south coast of
Hispaniola near 17N73W covering the central Caribbean and
supporting a surface trough that extends from 20N69W across
Hispaniola to 16N72W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of 17N to across Hispaniola between 69W-
73W. The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 11N75W to
across Costa Rica near 10N84W and coupled with the upper low
over the central Caribbean is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms south 13N between 72W-84W. The surface
trough and the tropical wave will merge into a broader area of
lower pressure in the southwest Caribbean this weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper low is centered along the south coast of Hispaniola
near 17N73W supporting a surface trough that extends from 20N69W
across Hispaniola to 16N72W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are north of 17N to across the island between 69W-
73W. The upper low will move north of the island and wash out by
early Friday. The upper low and lingering moisture will continue
to give the island showers and thunderstorms through Friday.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The primary concern this evening is Hurricane Nicole south-
southwest of Bermuda. See Special Features above. A broad upper
trough covers the west Atlantic west of 72W. Southwest of Nicole
is a mid level low centered near 23N73W with a surface trough
extending from 24N72W across the Bahama Islands to north coast
of Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the surface trough
between the Bahama islands and Cuba. A weak 1019 mb high is to
the east of Nicole near 31N51W. A large upper low is centered in
the east/central Atlantic near 28N38W with a 1014 mb surface low
near 30N40W. A surface trough extends from the surface low to
28N44W. The upper low is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 24N-30N between 33W-38W. A surface
ridge covers the east Atlantic north of 20N east of 35W anchored
by a 1020 mb high near 29N26W. Hurricane Nicole is expected to
increase in forward speed tonight followed by a northeast turn
and additional increase in forward speed on thursday. This will
take Nicole near or over Bermuda on Thursday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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