[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121806
TWDAT

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 28.8N 66.8W at 12/1800 UTC or
about 235 nm SSW of Bermuda moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 27N to
30N between 65W and 69W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 25N to 32N between 63W and 69W. The core of
Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday. Some
strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and Nicole
could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda.
A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to
8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Nicole is expected to
produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda
through Thursday. Swells associated with Nicole will affect
Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create
dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 06N to
14N with axis near 33W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and
dry air intrusion is observed wrapping the wave environment in
CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850 mb. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N to 17N between 25W and 38W.

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic just E of the Lesser
Antilles extending from 06N to 15N with axis near 60W, moving W at
15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of neutral
deep layer wind shear. Isolated showers are within 90 nm E of the
wave axis S of 11N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
11N29W to 07N37W. The ITCZ extends from 07N37W to 08N51W. See
tropical waves section for convection information.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf from the
coast of southern Texas near 28N96W to the Bay of Campeche near
18N94W. Abundant low to middle level moisture and a small region
of upper divergence is supporting scattered showers is the SW
basin S of 20N W of 92W. Otherwise, dry and stable NW flow aloft
prevails over the remainder of the basin as a surface ridge axis
extends from across the Carolinas SW to the central Gulf waters.
Primarily moderate to fresh E-NE winds prevail. The surface trough
is expected to drift westward and weaken through later today with
little change in the synoptic pattern forecast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered near 17N72W over the central
Caribbean with axis extending S-SW to 11N77W. Dry NW to W flow
aloft prevails W of this axis, thus providing overall fair skies.
Scattered heavy showers are occurring S of 13N between 72W and
85W associated with the EPAC Monsoon Trough axis. A weak surface
trough is analyzed nearly beneath the upper level low from across
eastern Hispaniola near 19N68W to near 13N70W. Isolated showers
and tstms are occurring in eastern Dominican Republic in
association with the troughing. A tropical wave along 60W will
continue moving W and increase probabilities for precipitation and
convection across the Lesser Antilles and portions of the eastern
Caribbean today and Thursday. Otherwise, mainly moderate to
occasional fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist
through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are occurring across the eastern island
associated with a surface trough that extends from 19N68W to near
13N70W. Convection is expected to continue as an upper level low
is centered over the island near 17N72W through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main threat in the basin is Hurricane Nicole heading towards
Bermuda. See special features section for details. West of the
influence of Hurricane Nicole, surface ridging prevails across the
SE CONUS anchored by a 1028 mb high centered in north Virginia.
Primarily fresh to strong NE winds are occurring across the SW
North Atlc waters with only scattered showers and tstms occurring
SW of the central Bahamas. Finally, a cutoff middle to upper
level low is noted on water vapor imagery near 27N37W that
supports a partially occluded 1013 mb low centered near 30N39W
with associated trough extending SW to 24N45W. A dissipating
stationary front extends from 30N29W to 21N44W. Isolated showers
and possible isolated tstms are occurring N of 23N between 30W
and 38W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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