[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120548
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
148 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.7N 66.8W at 12/0600 UTC or
about 290 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt
with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-
30N between 63W-70W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N29W to 17N29W moving W at 15 kt. A
1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 08N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-14N between 26W-32W.

Tropical wave extends from 06N59W to 16N58W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 55W-61W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 08N85W to 16N85W moving W at 15 kt. A
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity is in the vicinity of the
wave axis between 80W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-12N between 82W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 19N16W to
08N30W to 07N37W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N37W to 13N50W to 14N55W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N-10N between 11W-14W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 06N-12N between 32W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf from near
28N96W into the SW Gulf near 19N94W providing focus for isolated
showers and tstms occurring within 90 nm either side of the trough
axis. Otherwise...dry and stable NW flow aloft prevails over the
remainder of the basin as a surface ridge axis extends from across
the Carolinas SW to the central Gulf waters. Primarily moderate
to fresh E-NE winds prevail. The surface trough is expected to
drift westward and weaken through Wednesday with little change in
the synoptic pattern forecast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered near 18N71W over the central
Caribbean with axis extending S-SW to 12N77W. Dry N-NE flow aloft
prevails W of the axis providing overall fair skies this evening
with the exception of a few isolated showers and tstms associated
with a tropical wave extending along 86W across Central
America...and scattered showers and isolated strong tstms S of 13N
between 71W-86W...due to the close proximity of the Monsoon Trough
axis along 10N/11N. Otherwise...a weak surface trough is analyzed
nearly beneath the upper level low from across eastern Hispaniola
near 19N69W to near Aruba. Isolated showers and tstms are
occurring N of 16N between 65W-73W in association with the
troughing. A tropical wave along 59W will continue moving W and
increase probabilities for precipitation and convection across the
Lesser Antilles on Wednesday. Isolated showers and tstms are
currently S of 17N E of 63W. Finally...mainly moderate to
occasional fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist
through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as a
surface trough extends from 19N70W to near Aruba. Convection is
expected to continue as an upper level low is centered over the
island near 18N71W through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of the influence of Hurricane Nicole...surface ridging
prevails across the SE CONUS anchored by a 1026 mb high centered
in South Carolina. Primarily fresh to strong NE winds are
occurring across the SW North Atlc waters with only a few isolated
showers and tstms occurring across the SE Bahamas...Turks and
Caicos Islands...and the adjacent coastal waters from 21N-25N
between 72W-76W. Farther east...Hurricane Nicole remains near the
southern extent of a stationary front analyzed from 35N57W to
31N63W. Outside of the core convection near the center of
Nicole...widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring from
24N-34N between 56W-65W. Finally...a cutoff middle to upper level
low is noted on water vapor imagery near 29N36W that supports a
partially occluded 1014 mb low centered near 31N35W. The occluded
front curls N-NE to a triple point near 34N30W with an associated
cold front extending S to 26N30W. Beyond there...a stationary
front extends to 21N40W to 24N49W. Isolated showers and possible
isolated tstms are occurring from 22N-31N between 28W-37W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net