[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112338
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
738 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.4N 66.4W as of 11/2100 UTC,
at about 304 nm south-southwest of Bermuda, moving northwest at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous
moderate convection is from 25N-31N between 64W-69W. The center of
Nicole is expected to pass near Bermuda on Thursday. A dangerous
storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Nicole is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over Bermuda through Thursday.
Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next
few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and
rip currents. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from
17N26W to 05N27W, expected to move west at 15 kt over the next 24
hours. Abundant moisture prevails in the wave's environment mainly
south of 11N where scattered moderate convection is observed
between 25W-31W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N56W to 06N57W, moving west at 20 kt over the past 24
hours. Low-level moisture convergence and upper-level divergence
in the wave's environment supports abundant cloudiness in the area
with isolated showers between 52W-62W.

A tropical wave is moving across Central America with axis
extending from 17N84W to 08N84W, moving west at 15 kt over the
past 24 hours. Moderate moisture prevails in the wave's
environment supporting scattered moderate convection affecting
portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica between 81W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 18N16W to 08N31W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 08N31W to 10N52W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves,
scattered moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 34W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1031 mb
high centered near Nova Scotia. At the surface; a trough extends
over the northwest Gulf from 28N95W to 25N95W with no significant
convection. Another surface trough extends over the Bay of
Campeche from 23N93W to 20N93W. Scattered showers are observed
near this trough affecting the waters between 91W- 95W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across
the basin. The surface trough is expected to drift westward
through early Wednesday with little change in the synoptic pattern
forecast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across Central America while another
wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles from the east. Please
refer to the section above for details. The combination of the
proximity of the tropical wave and an upper-level diffluent flow
is supporting cloudiness and isolated convection across the
southern Caribbean waters mainly south of 12N between 75W-83W. An
upper-level low centered south of Dominican Republic, is
reflected at the surface as a trough that extends across the
north-central waters reaching the Mona Passage from 19N68W to
15N69W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 16N
between 66W-72W. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate
trades across most of the basin except west of 85W, where
moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevail. Expect through the
next 24 hours for the wave over Central America to continue moving
west into the EPAC while the next wave will enter the eastern
Caribbean with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level low centered south of Dominican Republic, is
reflected at the surface as a trough that extends across the
north-central waters reaching the Mona Passage from 19N68W to
15N69W. This feature is supporting scattered moderate convection
north of 16N between 66W-72W. The upper-level low will continue south
of the island through the next 24 hours therefore, a similar
weather activity will continue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Nicole located in the
southwest Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details.
Two tropical waves are moving across the east and central portions
of the basin. These features are described in the section above. A
frontal system extends across the central Atlantic from a 1012 mb
low centered near 31N35W. The fronts were analyzed as a
stationary portion from 30N52W to 22N41W then as a cold front
from that point to 24N32W to 34N31W. Isolated showers are observed
along the cold front mainly north of 25N. Surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin. Expect for Nicole to move
northwest within the next 24 hours. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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