[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Nicole became a hurricane at 1800 UTC. It is centered near 27.3N
66.3W about 308 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NW at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate convection is
from 26N to 28N between 65W and 67W. Scattered moderate is
elsewhere from 25N to 29N between 60W and 69W. The center of
Nicole is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night and pass
near Bermuda Thursday morning. A dangerous storm surge is expected
to produce coastal flooding in Bermuda. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Nicole is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over
Bermuda through Thursday. Swells associated with Nicole will
affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create
dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is in the E Atlanctic extending from 06N to 16N with
axis near 23W, expected to move W at 15 kt over the next 24 hours.
The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer wind shear and
dry air intrusion is observed W of the wave axis in both SSMI TPW
imagery and Meteosat Enhanced imagery. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 20W and 30W.

Tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 14N
with axis near 54W, moving W at 20 kt over the past 24 hours. Low
level moisture convergence and upper divergence support scattered
moderate convection from 05N to 14N between 50W and 61W.

Tropical wave is in the west Caribbean extending from 08N to 17N
with axis near 82W, moving W at 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Low
level moisture convergence, upper divergence, favorable deep layer
wind shear and abundant moisture support scattered moderate
convection S of 14N W of 80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N16W to 07N26W to 08N36W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N36W to 09N46W
to 09N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
06N to 11N between 30W and 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf from near
29N95W into the SW Gulf near 21N95W providing focus for isolated
showers occurring within 150 nm E of and 60 nm W of the trough
axis. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring in the Bay of
Campeche S of 21N E of 96W in response to an upper level trough
with base near 20N94W. Otherwise E of the influence of the
surface trough...primarily moderate to fresh E-NE winds prevail...
as surface ridging remains anchored across the eastern CONUS from
the New England region to northern Florida. The surface trough is
expected to drift westward through early Wednesday with little
change in the synoptic pattern forecast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level NE flow prevails on the western periphery of an upper
level low noted on water vapor imagery centered near the Mona
Passage and extending S-SW to adjacent coastal waters of Colombia.
Most of this NE flow remains within a relatively stable
environment resulting in mostly fair skies for a majority of the
basin W of 71W. However, the presence of a tropical wave along
82W and close proximity of the Monsoon Trough axis is providing
focus for widely scattered showers and isolated strong tstms S of
13N between 75W-85W. East of the upper level low, cloudiness and
isolated showers are occurring E of 68W as SE to S winds continue
to round surface ridging across the Lesser Antilles and into the
circulation of Hurricane Nicole centered in the SW North Atlc.
Outside of the influence of the tropical wave...mainly moderate
trades prevail and are expected to persist through Friday.
Otherwise, a new tropical wave will enter the Caribbean Wednesday
morning.

...HISPANIOLA...

The middle level cyclonic circulation associated with Nicole in
the SW N Atlantic extends a trough to N of Hispaniola where it
supports a surface trough that along with a second surface trough
in the central Caribbean along 70W support low level cloudiness
and isolated showers across the island. Convection is expected to
continue as N-NE flow aloft remains over the island through
tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Nicole located in the
SW basin. The remainder of the SW North Atlc remains under the
influence of surface ridging anchored across the SE CONUS on a
1033 mb high centered in northern Virginia. Farther east...a
cutoff middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
near 31N34W that supports a partially occluded 1015 mb low
centered near 31N33W. The occluded front extends to a triple point
near 34N29W with an associated stationary front extending S-SW to
27N30W when it becomes a cold front along 21N40W to 27N51W.
Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 120 nm
either side of the front...and within 150 nm of the low center.
Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near
33N20W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS
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