[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111152
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 27.2N 66.0W at 11/1200 UTC
or about 318 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 25N-29N between 63W-68W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is elsewhere from 22N-31N between 57W-68W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/
WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 05N53W to 16N50W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 44W-56W and
remains beneath the base of an upper level trough in the vicinity
of 11N47W. Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is from 07N-14N between 43W-58W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N73W to 15N72W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 69W-76W
and abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N
between 73W-76W.

Tropical wave extends from 05N81W to 15N81W moving W at 15 kt. A
maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity is along the wave axis in the
vicinity of 12N over the SW Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 09N-14N between 81W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from near 10N17W to 07N30W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N30W to 09N40W
to 10N47W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is from 04N-11N between 20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf from near
28N95W into the SW Gulf near 21N93W providing focus for isolated
showers and tstms occurring within 150 nm E of and 90 nm W of the
trough axis. Other isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of
25N between 88W-95W...including portions of southern Mexico in
response to an upper level trough and mid-level energy focused in
the vicinity of 23N91W. Otherwise E of the influence of the
surface trough...primarily moderate to fresh E-NE winds prevail...
as surface ridging remains anchored across the eastern CONUS from
the New England region to northern Florida. The surface trough is
expected to drift westward through early Wednesday with little
change in the synoptic pattern forecast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level NE flow prevails on the western periphery of an upper
level trough noted on water vapor imagery extending from over the
Mona Passage region S-SW to a base over the adjacent coastal
waters of Colombia near 12N74W. Most of this NE flow remains
within a relatively stable environment resulting in mostly fair
skies for a majority of the basin W of 70W...however the presence
of a tropical wave along 81W and close proximity of the Monsoon
Trough axis is providing focus for widely scattered showers and
isolated strong tstms S of 14N between 75W-85W. East of the upper
level trough axis...cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring
E of 67W as SE to S winds continue to round surface ridging across
the Lesser Antilles and into the circulation of Tropical Storm
Nicole centered in the SW North Atlc. Otherwise...outside of the
influence of the tropical waves...mainly moderate trades prevail
and are expected to persist through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this morning as
Tropical Storm Nicole remains centered well N-NE across the SW
North Atlc waters. Convection is expected to continue as N-NE flow
aloft remains over the island through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over
the western North Atlc with axis extending from 45N57W to a base
near 35N65W. The troughing supports a cold front extending from
36N60W SW to 33N65W then stationary to 28N70W...remaining NW of
Tropical Storm Nicole. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm
either side of the front. At the tail end of the front is Nicole
producing a large area of scattered showers and tstms from 22N-32N
between 57W-69W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc remains under
the influence of surface ridging anchored across the SE CONUS on a
1030 mb high centered in northern Virginia. Farther east...a
cutoff middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
near 31N34W that supports a partially occluded 1014 mb low
centered near 31N33W. The occluded front extends to a triple
point near 34N29W with an associated stationary front extending
S-SW to 28N30W to 23N40W to 25N48W. Widely scattered showers and
tstms are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front...and
within 150 nm of the low center. Finally...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by
a 1020 mb high centered near 33N18W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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