[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Storm Nicole is centered near 26.9N 65.8W at 11/0600 UTC
or about 330 nm S of Bermuda moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt
with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 24N-
28N between 63W-68W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere from 22N-30N between 56W-69W. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 07N50W to 17N47W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 44W-53W and
remains beneath the base of an upper level trough in the vicinity
of 12N49W. Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered strong
convection is from 08N-13N between 44W-56W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N70W to 16N70W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 68W-72W and
abundant low-level moisture as noted on Total Precipitable Water
imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between
68W-73W.

Tropical wave extends from 08N80W to 17N79W moving W at 15 kt. A
1010 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 13N that
coincides with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity over the SW
Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-
14N between 78W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N15W to
07N30W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N30W to 12N40W to 11N45W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 04N-13N between 19W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf from near
29N92W into the SW Gulf near 22N92W providing focus for isolated
showers and tstms occurring N of 20N between 90W-95W. Other
isolated showers and tstms are occurring S of 25N between 87W-
91W...including portions of the Yucatan peninsula in response to
an upper level trough and mid-level energy focused in the vicinity
of 24N90W. Otherwise E of the influence of the surface trough...
primarily moderate to fresh E-NE winds prevail...as surface
ridging remains anchored across the eastern CONUS from the New
England region to northern Florida. The surface trough is
expected to drift westward through early Wednesday with little
change in the synoptic pattern forecast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level NE flow prevails on the western periphery of an upper
level trough noted on water vapor imagery extending from over the
Mona Passage region S-SW to a base over the adjacent coastal
waters of Colombia near 13N72W. Most of this NE flow remains
within a relatively stable environment resulting in mostly fair
skies for a majority of the basin W of 70W...however the presence
of a tropical wave along 80W and close proximity of the Monsoon
Trough axis is providing focus for widely scattered showers and
isolated strong tstms S of 14N between 75W-83W. East of the upper
level trough axis...cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring
E of 67W as SE to S winds continue to round surface ridging across
the Lesser Antilles and into the circulation of Tropical Storm
Nicole centered in the SW North Atlc. Otherwise...outside of the
influence of the tropical waves...mainly moderate trades prevail
and are expected to persist through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this evening as
Tropical Storm Nicole remains centered well N-NE across the SW
North Atlc waters. Convection is expected to continue as N-NE
flow aloft remains over the island through Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over
the western North Atlc with axis extending from 45N60W to a base
near 34N68W. The troughing supports a cold front extending from
35N63W SW to 31N67W then stationary to 27N69W...remaining NW of
Tropical Storm Nicole. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm
either side of the front. At the tail end of the front is Nicole
producing a large area of scattered showers and tstms from 20N-31N
between 55W-69W. The remainder of the SW North Atlc remains under
the influence of surface ridging anchored across the SE CONUS on a
1027 mb high centered across the Carolinas. Farther east...a
cutoff middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery
near 31N34W that supports a partially occluded 1014 mb low
centered near 31N32W. The occluded front extends to a triple point
near 34N28W with the associated cold front extending S-SW to
27N30W to 23N40W to 25N46W then stationary to 31N53W. Widely
scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 120 nm either
side of the front. Finally...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high
centered the Madeira Islands near 33N18W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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