[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121149
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 AM EDT WED OCT 12 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Nicole is centered near 28.0N 66.9W at 12/1200 UTC or
about 278 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt
with gusts to 105 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-
31N between 64W-70W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave extends from 09N32W to 16N31W moving W at 15 kt. A
1008 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 09N and remains
embedded within the Monsoon Trough axis. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N-15N between 26W-38W.

Tropical wave extends from 07N61W to 15N59W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 56W-62W.
No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this
time.

Tropical wave extends from 07N87W to 13N86W moving W at 10-15 kt.
A maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity is in the vicinity of the
wave axis between 82W-89W. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N-13N between 83W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to
12N26W to 08N37W to 08N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from
07N-16N between 40W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough is analyzed across the western Gulf from near
27N97W into the SW Gulf near 19N94W providing focus for isolated
showers and tstms occurring S of 24N between 93W-97W. Otherwise...
dry and stable NW flow aloft prevails over the remainder of the
basin as a surface ridge axis extends from across the Carolinas SW
to the central Gulf waters. Primarily moderate to fresh E-NE winds
prevail. The surface trough is expected to drift westward and
weaken through Wednesday with little change in the synoptic
pattern forecast through Friday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level low is centered near 18N71W over the central
Caribbean with axis extending S-SW to 12N77W. Dry N-NE flow aloft
prevails W of the axis providing overall fair skies this morning
with the exception of a few isolated showers and tstms occurring
near 17N79W and off the coast of eastern Honduras near 16N83W.
Other scattered showers and strong tstms are occurring S of 13N
between 71W-85W...due to the close proximity of the Monsoon
Trough axis along 09N/10N. Otherwise...a weak surface trough is
analyzed nearly beneath the upper level low from across eastern
Hispaniola near 19N71W to near 13N72W. Isolated showers and tstms
are occurring N of 17N between 66W-72W in association with the
troughing. A tropical wave along 60W will continue moving W and
increase probabilities for precipitation and convection across the
Lesser Antilles and portions of the eastern Caribbean on
Wednesday. Isolated showers and tstms are currently S of 17N E of
65W. Finally...mainly moderate to occasional fresh trades prevail
and are expected to persist through Friday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers are occurring across the island this morning as
a surface trough extends from 19N71W to near 13N72W. Convection
is expected to continue as an upper level low is centered over the
island near 18N71W through Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
West of the influence of Hurricane Nicole...surface ridging
prevails across the SE CONUS anchored by a 1027 mb high centered
in western North Carolina. Primarily fresh to strong NE winds are
occurring across the SW North Atlc waters with only a few isolated
showers and tstms occurring across the SE Bahamas and the adjacent
coastal waters from 22N-24N between 73W-77W. Farther
east...Hurricane Nicole remains near the southern extent of a
stationary front analyzed from 33N60W to 32N65W. Outside of the
core convection near the center of Nicole...widely scattered
showers and tstms are occurring from 24N-34N between 55W-65W.
Finally...a cutoff middle to upper level low is noted on water
vapor imagery near 29N37W that supports a partially occluded 1014
mb low centered near 32N38W. The occluded front curls N to 35N35W
then E to a triple point near 34N29W with an associated cold front
extending S to 31N29W. Beyond there...a stationary front extends
SW to 22N42W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are
occurring from 22N-30N between 29W-40W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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